NFL Week 1 fantasy: 10 things you need to know

Congratulations to those of you who had Tony Romo or Kevin Ogletree or DeMarco Murray in your fantasy lineups this week. For the rest of you, here are some news and notes to get you going before you finalize your Week 1 fantasy lineup:

1. BUSTIN’ OUT

Congrats to NFL.com fantasy analyst Matt Smith. We thought he was crazy for including the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew and Victor Cruz on his preseason list of potential fantasy busts. But after a summer-long holdout, few people expect to see MJD make a big impact early on. And while Cruz caught 6 passes for 58 yards for the Giants in their Wednesday night loss to the Dallas Cowboys, he also had an alarming number of dropped passes.

Maybe Smith is onto something, which is why you have to keep an eye on the most surprising player on his list of predicted busts: Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton. Can last year’s all-world rookie possibly fall flat this week in Tampa?

2. WAIT, WHAT?

We’re all for making lineup decisions based heavily upon the defenses our players are facing from week to week. But let’s not get carried away. It seems like that’s what Derek Lofland of Fantasy Football Maniax has done. His “Start of the Week” is a rookie RB making his NFL debut for a team that went 4-12 last season. Sure, Doug Martin is facing a Carolina Panthers team that was bad against the run last week, but really?

And wait, there’s more… High among his “other players to start” is Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker, a player with all of 66 career passing attempts under his belt. Sure the Titans are facing a New England Patriots defense that was terrible against the pass last season, but Locker isn’t even owned in 55 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues. Expecting a big fantasy day from Locker may be a stretch.

3. BIG BEN’S BABY WATCH

Big Ben is going to be a Big Daddy soon. That’s right, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his wife are due to have their first child this fall. Roethlisberger hasn’t divulged the date – but he has adamantly stated that he will not miss the birth of his child, even if it means missing a football game. That’s admirable. It’s also a potential nightmare if Big Ben is your starting QB. So here’s what you do: After Roethlisberger lights it up in a Sunday night shootout this week with Peyton Manning in Denver, trade him immediately. Get whatever you can for him, and pick up Jake Locker... or someone else.

4. CLASH OF THE TIGHT ENDS

We know, we know… Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have forever changed the way we view tight ends in fantasy. These guys averaged 95 receptions, 1,318 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and they became fantasy darlings. If you’ve got Gronk or Graham on your team, bully for you. If not, don’t sweat it… The NFL is a copycat league; expect more action for all TEs. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look each week at the fantasy points against. Based on how tight ends fared against defenses last season, here are four with favorable matchups this week:

Dustin Keller vs. Bills

Vernon Davis vs. Packers

Kyle Rudolph vs. Jaguars

Antonio Gates vs. Raiders

5. YO GABBERT, GABBERT!

Poor Blaine Gabbert. After a miserable rookie season, the Jaguars QB is only owned in 1.3 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues – that’s lower than Christian Ponder! But what if Gabbert is ready to take a step up this season? What if he can form a bond with first-round pick WR Justin Blackmon? And what if the Jaguars’ Week 1 opponent were the Vikings, who allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season? Yeah, what if…

6. REACH FOR MEACHEM?

Lance Moore or Robert Meachem? Who would you start this week if you had to choose between these two? According to a head-to-head analysis from Fantasypros.com, 18 of 26 fantast experts have Meachem ranked higher in Week 1 projections. Overall, the average of the 26 experts had Meachem projected as the 37^th-best WR this week, with Moore at 41.

But get this: NFL.com’s weekly projections – which are compiled by EA Sports – have Meachem as the No. 9 WR this week. They say he’ll have 80 yards and a TD against the Raiders Monday night. That’s the kind of “out there” prediction we’ll be very interested to follow.

7. DECEPTIVE STAT OF THE WEEK

Overheard on the sidelines at my son’s pee-wee football practice this week: “I know the Browns suck, but they had the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL last year. Bad matchup for Michael Vick this week.”

Uh, no. The reason Cleveland gave up the second-fewest passing yards last season was because they ranked 30^th in run defense. Nobody had to pass on the Browns because they were too busy running all over them. That’s good news for Eagles RB LeSean McCoy this week, but rest assured Vick will get his points. Don’t be surprised if Philly’s first offensive call is a play-action, 80-yard TD pass to Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

8. FLYING FALCONS

A look at the final Fantasy Points Against stats from last season shows the Chiefs allowed the fourth fewest passing yards per game. Don’t let that scare you off if you own any offensive players from the Atlanta Falcons, the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent. QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones are weekly must-starts regardless, but their value increases this week against a K.C. defense that is without its star pass-rusher Tamba Hali, who’s out this week serving a one-game suspension. Hali had 12 sacks last season, and without his pressure on the QB, expect Ryan to compete for top Week 1 fantasy honors.

9. LINE DANCE

As bad as the New York Jets’ offensive line looked in preseason, our friends at Footballguys.com still have them ranked as the second-best o-line in the NFL. Hard to believe they can just flip a switch and suddenly become the ground-and-pound attack Rex Ryan dreams about, but who knows? The Jets face a strong defensive line in Week 1 when they host the Buffalo Bills, so we’ll find out in a hurry if Footballguys.com knows something we don’t.

10. WE LOVE MONDAY

The coolest thing about Week 1 in the NFL? There are TWO games on Monday night! There is nothing in fantasy more exciting than when your weekly matchup comes down to the Monday night game. With four teams playing this Monday – Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders – that’s double the chances your fantasy battle will go down to the wire this week. Think about it… it’s entirely possible you can field a lineup that includes Philip Rivers, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, A.J. Green, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Antonio Gates, Sebastian Janikowski and the Ravens defense. Know what that means? You could go into Monday night trailing your opponent 100-0, and you’d still be favored to win. So set your lineup accordingly, plant yourself in front of the TV and – as T.O. would say – get your popcorn ready!

The woman behind the man who built the New York Giants

By Craig Ellenport

I doubt many of Peter King’s readers knew who Lovie Young was when they read the news in this week’s MMQB column that she had passed away last Thursday. She was the widow of the late George Young, architect of the New York Giants teams that won two Super Bowls under his reign as general manager.

I never met Lovie Young, but I did have the honor of talking to her just a few weeks ago. Though she was weakened by cancer, she was very gracious and offered her time to speak with me for a book project that focuses on how her husband built the Giants, almost from the ground up, when he was hired just two months after the debacle known as “The Miracle at the Meadowlands.”

There was never any doubt that Lovie was extremely proud of George, and his storied NFL career really had nothing to do with that. George was an incredibly popular high school coach and educator in Baltimore long before he drafted Phil Simms and Lawrence Taylor, long before he hired Bill Parcells, long before he laid the foundation that has kept the Giants successful long after he retired.

Lovie explained to me that George got his NFL break in the late ‘60s, when then-Baltimore Colts head coach Don Shula needed someone to evaluate players on film for him. Shula was impressed with George’s work, enough so to offer him a job with the Colts in 1968.

“But George had been so big in Baltimore and so popular, that I didn’t really think it was that big a deal,” said Lovie. “Isn’t that strange? But it’s true.”

Ten years later, after serving a number of roles under Shula with both the Colts and Miami Dolphins, Young was hired as GM of the Giants. It was never a job George aspired to, Lovie said. “He wasn’t interested (in being the boss),” she said. “He was interested in the franchise. The franchise was the thing that always fascinated him about the Giants. He always said, ‘Remember, they don’t love me, they don’t love you. They love the team.’”

One Giants player who did love both George and Lovie Young was Hall of Famer Harry Carson (and he wasn’t even drafted by George; he was already on the team when the Youngs came to town). Carson developed a close bond with George. He spoke at his funeral in 2001 and continued to speak with Lovie on a regular basis after that.

“One thing that really stands out is that his wife would always be at the airport,” Carson told me when I interviewed him about George for the book. “Regardless of what time we would come in from playing a game, she would be there to meet him. And I’d think, ‘How did this fat, bald guy with these big glasses… how did he snag this woman?’ And she’d love him so much that she’d be at the airport after every away game to pick him up. I thought, he must really be smooth, there must be something else to George.”

There was an awful lot to George, for which Giants fans can be eternally grateful. One of them was a strong woman by his side.

Saints Bountygate will overshadow big moment for Brees

By Craig Ellenport

Some thoughts regarding the New Orleans Saints’ bountygate fallout, now that four players have been suspended for various lengths of time to go along with the coach and front office punishments:

Streak overshadowed

All the focus on how the Saints play without Sean Payton and Joe Vitt on the sidelines and without defensive standouts Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith through the first quarter of the season (Payton and Vilma the entire season), is going to overshadow and take away from what should be one of the coolest stories of the 2012 NFL season.

Drew Brees enters the season with a streak of at least one touchdown pass in 43 consecutive games. That’s four shy of the record held by Johnny Unitas – and I am not in the minority when I say I thought that was the most unattainable record in NFL history. (That honor now belongs to Brett Favre for his iron-man starting streak.)

Assuming Brees does keep the streak going – and obviously the Saints will be passing a lot regardless of how their defense plays – he will tie the record in Week 4 when New Orleans is at Green Bay. He’ll then have a chance to break the record in Week 5 at home vs. his old team, the San Diego Chargers – a nationally-televised Sunday night game.

It’s been 52 years since Unitas’ streak ended. If Brees breaks the record, it could easily be one that stands another 52 years, at least. Too bad the fanfare will be overshadowed by a media that is consumed with the Saints’ punishment.

Still the one

I agree with NFL.com’s Steve Wyche, who said on NFL Network Wednesday morning that he thinks the Saints remain the team to beat in the NFC South despite being shorthanded on the field and the sidelines.

Not taking anything away from Payton’s value as the head coach, but Brees is much like Peyton Manning in his ability to serve as an on-field coach and leader of the offense. The Saints will have no trouble scoring points this year. The defense, meanwhile, ranked 24^th in 2011 in yards allowed per game and the team still finished 13-3 and won the division by three games. The Falcons remain a dangerous team; the Panthers and Buccaneers will both be improved. But none of those teams are as good as the Saints, suspensions or not.

The Vegas angle

Between the extra incentive on Brees and the offense to carry this team and the defensive holes that got bigger with the player suspensions, will the folks in Vegas have to think long and hard before setting the over/unders for Saints games?

They were used to setting that number high to begin with. Only the Green Bay Packers last season had a greater overall point total (combined for and against) than the Saints. For the record, here are the four teams with the highest average total points per game in 2011:

Green Bay Packers -- 57.4

New Orleans Saints -- 55.4

Detroit Lions -- 53.8

New England Patriots -- 53.4

It’s a safe bet the Saints will allow more points in 2012 and score at least as many as they did last year. It’ll be interesting to see how Vegas adjusts.

FootballNation.com is your home for NFL Draft coverage

By Craig Ellenport

With the 2012 NFL Draft set to kick off Thursday, here are some recent draft-related items I wrote this week for FootballNation.com:

* The biggest linebacker busts in NFL history -- I actually felt bad including Quentin Coryatt and Brian Bosworth on this list because neither would have been considered had it not been for major injuries. That's right, Bosworth had an excuse. Meanwhile, I was tickled to see Big Ten bully Ohio State land four players on this list.

* The 10 best draft picks in Jets history -- It would have been much more fun to write about the biggest busts in Jets history, but there are some good picks here. FYI, with all the scrutiny prospects face these days, do you think a wide receiver who is blind in one eye would ever be a second-round draft pick? That was the case with Wesley Walker, who turned out just fine.

* The 10 best draft picks in Giants history -- LT and Simms have to be at the top of the list. No questions asked. After that, the order could easily have been jumbled. I had no problem putting Jason Pierre-Paul on this list after just two seasons. In this day and age, where winning now is the mantra, GM Jerry Reese was gutsy enough to use the 15th overall pick on a guy everyone said was a project. And JPP  showed return on investment sooner than anyone expected.

By the way, for more outstanding draft coverage, check out all the good stuff from FootballNation.com.

NFL schedule: Piecing together a Thursday night puzzle

By Craig Ellenport

After six years with a half-season of Thursday night games, the NFL awarded its own network a full slate of Thursday games for the first time this year – and it created a giant headache for the folks at 345 Park Avenue charged with creating that schedule. As one of the league’s schedule-makers put it, “They took a really hard problem and made it exponentially harder.”

For the record, this person wasn’t complaining – putting the schedule together is a rewarding challenge. He’s used to hearing complaints from owners about short weeks, long road trips and December games at Lambeau Field. It’s all a learning process, and – let’s face it – there’s no such thing as a bad NFL schedule.

So what makes it so difficult to schedule 13 games for NFL Network’s Thursday night package? Let’s take a look at some of the intricacies of the process…

For starters, the NFL adopted a policy that no team will be forced to play more than one “short week.” That means the six teams scheduled to play on Thanksgiving -- the Texans, Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Patriots and Jets – are all out of the picture. And since this is the first year that NBC will be airing the Thanksgiving night game, that means arguably the best Thursday night matchup of the year – Patriots at Jets – is not on the NFL Network schedule.

That leaves 26 teams to fill 26 spots. And some pretty good teams playing on Thanksgiving that cannot be part of the NFLN package. In fact, it’s the first time since the network began its Thursday night package that the Cowboys are not on the slate.

Another new policy the league implemented after the Competition Committee weighed in: No TNF games in which a team has to travel more than one time zone. If that were in place last year, you wouldn’t have had Jets-Broncos, Eagles-Seahawks or the Harbaugh Bowl, 49ers-Ravens. (Note: This is not a hard-and-fast rule, and so there is one such game this season – Kansas City at San Diego.)

Between the short week and time zone limitations, it’s no wonder that none of the 12 games that NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison cited as the most intriguing matchups of 2012 are on the TNF schedule. Five are multiple time zone trips; six feature teams playing on Thanksgiving. The 12^th game is Green Bay at Chicago, which isn’t a TNF game – but Chicago at Green Bay is on the slate. Which should not be a big surprise given the limitations.

With so few choices to fill out 13 games, there’s really only one way to make them compelling: make them division games. Thus, nine of the 13 NFL Network TNF games are division games. (I heard Mike Mayock say this week that he “can’t wait” for the Cleveland-Baltimore game in Week 4. Okay, sure.)

A couple of other considerations when piecing this puzzle together:

* We’re not saying there aren’t some terrific TNF matchups. Bears-Packers, Giants-Panthers, Broncos-Raiders. Here’s what those games have in common: They are all scheduled for non-bye weeks. Why? Because if you’re going to pull those good matchups off the board for FOX and CBS, networks that are paying billions to air NFL games, then you at least want to give them a full complement of remaining games.

* Of the four non-divisional games, only one can really be considered a clunker: Buccaneers at Vikings in Week 8. Well, that one is going up against the World Series, so it’s essentially a sacrificial lamb.

Then again, would you be surprised if the least anticipated Thursday night NFL game outdrew a World Series game?

Packers fans unafraid to put Rodgers on Madden cover

Ah, the joys of fan interaction…

In today’s fun-filled media landscape, you can’t go wrong with a top 10 list or a top 50 list or a top 100 list. Or maybe a bracket tournament, perhaps spread out over a few weeks to keep the readers coming back for more. And it clearly doesn’t matter who the so-called “experts” are creating these lists. Then again, who needs experts? Let the fans decide!

EA Sports didn’t get the ball rolling, but it did up the ante last year by letting fans vote for who should be on the cover of Madden ’12. And logic immediately went out the window when the fans voted for Cleveland Browns RB Peyton Hillis, who promptly proved the Madden Curse was not a myth.

This year’s voting for the Madden ’13 cover is down to fourfinalists, and it is a surprisingly representative quartet: Cam Newton, Patrick Willis, Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. 

What’s interesting is that Willis, easily the biggest longshot on this list given that he’s a soft-spoken defensive player, knocked off New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz in last week’s voting to advance to the quarterfinals. Is that a ringing endorsement of the 49ers’ Pro Bowl linebacker, or just a matter of more 49ers fans taking part in the vote?

Neither.

Clearly, this was a case of smart Giants fans protecting their young star from the curse.

The fact that Willis has made it this far might even be the result of fantasy football players wanting to keep any and all offensive stars away from the Madden cover. Willis takes on Newton this week in the semifinals – does anyone really want to see the Panthers’ iconic and entertaining QB suffer? Adding a potential Madden Curse to a potential sophomore slump could be devastating.

Rodgers faces Megatron in the other semifinal matchup – a classic battle between the reigning NFL MVP, Rodgers, whose rabid Packers fan base should be enough to put him over the top, and Johnson, who probably makes the nmost sense to be on the Madden cover.

After all, we’re talking about a guy nicknamed for a cartoon robot. Who better to be the face of a video game? It’s a match made in CG heaven!

Still, he will have a hard time holding off Packers Nation. And the fantasy vote will not be enough to help Willis defeat the popular Newton. I’m predicting it will be Newton vs. Rodgers in the finals, with A-Rod taking home the belt (get it?) and donning the Madden ’13 cover.

Then again, what good are predictions in any kind of fan vote? When NFL.com launched its bracket tournament last month to determine the best team of all time, could anyone have dreamed of a final pitting the 1976 Oakland Raiders against the 2000 Baltimore Ravens? Not even close, but that’s what we got.

Ridiculous? In retrospect, that Raiders team – which narrowly defeated the Ravens in the voting – was pretty damn good. It featured a plethora of Hall of Famers and guys who are still being strongly considered for Canton. But logic wasn’t part of the equation. Raider Nation came out in force and made it happen.

The biggest learning experience here is that the Ravens fan base is far more passionate than we ever imagined. Not only did they get the 2000 Ravens to the finals, but they helped current Ravens RB Ray Rice put up a good showing in the EA Sports vote. Rice actually knocked off the ever-popular Drew Brees in Round 2 of the Madden ’13 vote, and he gave Rodgers all he could handle one round later.

Who knew?

Too bad the Ravens aren’t represented in this new fan voting platform. The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s site is running a bracket tourney in which fans will vote for the best old-time jerseys. Today’s matchup pits the1936 Giants jersey against the 1971 49ers jersey. The Giants jersey is hideous. But guess what? As a Giants fan, I happily cast my vote for it.

Ignorant fan…

Carmelo Anthony in drug rehab (sorta)

By Craig Ellenport

Thanks to Showtime’s awesome PR folks, my wife and I have gotten a jump on Season 4 of “Nurse Jackie” – easily one of the best shows on TV. The season doesn’t officially launch until this Sunday, April 8, but we were already on Episode 2 the other night when we noticed a familiar face -- in a decided unfamiliar place…

BREAKING NEWS: Carmelo Anthony is in drug rehab!

Okay, well it was a fictional character being portrayed by Carmelo Anthony. That’s right, the New York Knicks star shows up at the drug rehab facility that Jackie – Edie Falco of “Sopranos” fame, for the uninitiated – checks herself into at the start of this season.

So next Sunday, April 15, is a big day for ‘Melo. He and the Knicks are in Miami that afternoon to play LeBron and the Heat. And that night he makes his Jackie appearance on Showtime.

It’s not Anthony’s first TV gig – he made the most of the NBA lockout last fall when he filmed both the “Nurse Jackie” appearance and a cameo on “Law & Order: SVU.”

The difference is that on “SVU” he had a simple cameo playing himself – a role he literally was born to play. The “Nurse Jackie” role is a slightly bigger challenge – not only because he must play a drug addict. While his character is a professional athlete… he’s a baseball player.

Perhaps the writers were afraid to make him a basketball player because, at the time they wrote the episode, they didn’t know if there would be an NBA season when the show aired.

FYI, it’s shaping up to be a star-filled season of “Nurse Jackie,” and I’ve only seen the first five episodes. In Sunday’s season premiere, Billy Joe of Green Day spends some quality time with Jackie. Anthony is in Episode 2; in Episode 5, Rosie Perez makes an appearance.

And if you haven’t seen “Nurse Jackie,” it’s not too late to get into it. The regular cast so good that they really don’t need big-name guests to spice it up, is terrific, so ‘Melo and company are just a bonus for one of the more underrated, underappreciated show on TV.

Will Parcells coach the Saints... again?

While it now sounds like there might be some truth to the idea that Sean Payton is recruiting Bill Parcells to coach the New Orleans Saints this year as Payton serves a one-year suspension, let's get one thing straight: The Tuna has already helped the Saints win a Super Bowl.

It was a little over two years when the Saints were preparing for Super Bowl XLIV against the Colts in South Florida. On Monday of Super Bowl week, I had the privilege of moderating a live chat on NFL.com with Parcells, then an exec with the Miami Dolphins. We conducted the chat at the Dolphins facility. The third question Parcells fielded was one about the offensive play-calling of Payton, a former Parcells assistant who remained good friends with his mentor.

After Parcells answered the question, he offered an aside: "That guy's been trying to call me all week."

Payton was calling Parcells, he explained, to see if the should-already-be-in-the-Hall-of-Fame coach would speak to the Saints players. After all, Parcells had taken three teams to the Super Bowl in his coaching career and carried off the Lombardi Trophy twice with the Giants.

As fate would have it, the Saints arrived in South Florida right around the time that live chat was taking place. Their first stop: a news conference at the Dolphins' facility. So after his chat with NFL.com readers, Parcells went downstairs and spoke to Payton's boys about what to expect on Super Bowl Sunday and how to prepare for the biggest game of their lives.

Oh, and he imparted some advice to his friend Payton. He stressed the element of surprise -- the importance of planning to throw a curveball or two at the Colts. This was, after all, the same coach who called a flea flicker in Super Bowl XXI and a ballsy fake punt that helped the Giants win the 1990 NFC title game over the heavily-favored 49ers.

Thus was born the idea to try an onside kick in Super Bowl XLIV. Even if it had already been worked on, Parcells' advice cemented the idea for Payton. Trailing 10-6 at halftime, Payton called for the onside kick to open the second half. The Saints recovered and scored the go-ahead touchdown six plays later.

Thank you, Coach Parcells.

There are still many players on the Saints roster who played in Super Bowl XLIV. If Parcells does come out of retirement to coach them, they'll have no trouble following the man who helped them win their first title. Of course, Parcells may be a little tougher on them than Payton was.

Top draft pick to Hall of Fame? Not in the '90s

Interesting note courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s web site, listing the 13 members of the Hall who were first overall draft picks. Did you think that number would be higher? Let’s take a closer look.

From 1960-1989, the first overall pick produced exactly three Hall of Famers per decade. That meant that the teams picking first overall in those 30 years had a 30 percent chance of landing a future Hall of Famer. Any GM would take those odds, right?

It’s the dreaded ‘90s that water down the numbers. As of now, there are zero top picks from the ‘90s in Canton. That will change as soon as Peyton Manning (1998) becomes eligible. And eventually, 1997 top pick Orlando Pace might give the ‘90s two No. 1 Hall of Famers. After that, however, none of the remaining eight top picks is even close to consideration.

There’s still plenty of history to be written for the top picks of the 2000s, but the first 10 years of this century don’t look much better than the ‘90s in terms of first overall picks. Two Super Bowl MVPs for Eli Manning (2004) put him in the mix. The jury is still way out there on Michael Vick, Mario Williams and Matt Stafford, but that’s about it.

Interestingly, while there have been 13 No. 1 picks to reach the Hall, a total of 12 Hall of Famers were No. 2 overall picks. The most recent was Marshall Faulk (1994) and there are two more that have a decent shot (Julius Peppers, 2002, and Calvin Johnson, 2007).

Look, picking at the top of the draft by no means guarantees you a Hall of Fame player. The problem is not missing out on a superstar; it’s passing on a superstar in favor of a bust. And when you look at this list of the top two picks since 1990, you find more busts than winners. Forget about Hall of Fame… Pro Bowl would be nice.

Year	No. 1 Pick	No. 2 Pick
1990	Jeff George	Blair Thomas
1991	Russell Maryland	Eric Turner
1992	Steve Emtman	Quentin Coryatt
1993	Drew Bledsoe	Rick Mirer
1994	Dan Wilkinson	Marshall Faulk
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Tony Boselli
1996	Keyshwn Johnson	Kevin Hardy
1997	Orlando Pace	Darrell Russell
1998	Peyton Manning	Ryan Leaf
1999	Tim Couch	Donovan McNabb
2000	Courtney Brown	LaVar Arrington
2001	Michael Vick	Leonard Davis
2002	David Carr	Julius Peppers
2003	Carson Palmer	Charles Rogers
2004	Eli Manning	Robert Gallery
2005	Alex Smith	Ronnie Brown
2006	Mario Williams	Reggie Bush
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Calvin Johnson
2008	Jake Long	Chris Long
2009	Matt Stafford	Jason Smith
2010	Sam Bradford	Ndamukong Suh
2011	Cam Newton	Von Miller

Quick thoughts on Tebow and the Jets

When Antonio Cromartie declared Tuesday that the New York Jets didn’t need Tim Tebow, it was a foregone conclusion that’s where America’s quarterback was headed. And now, the Jets must go all in on a ground-and-pound attack.

Forget for a moment the circus-like atmosphere that Mike Tannenbaum has created. Mark Sanchez won’t be able to throw an incomplete pass without hearing it from the Tebow-maniacs. But hey, who better to lead a three-ring circus than the ringmaster himself, Rex Ryan?

Here are some quick-hit thoughts about what to make of Tim Tebow in the Big Apple:

• The folks that run the Jets, Tannenbaum and Ryan, have been doing this long enough to know what they have brought on themselves. They cannot be so blind as to think Tebow is like any other quarterback they could have brought in to provide “competition” for the embattled Sanchez. Right? 

• Wildcat or no wildcat, new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano at least has some good experience mixing in a hybrid attack with a guy like Tebow. I assume Sparano was consulted on this trade before it was made, and I can see Sparano and Tebow working well together. 

• Now, what happens if Tebow does end up as the starting QB for the Jets? The Jets are only two years removed from reaching the AFC title game with a dominant rushing attack. They staggered to 22^nd in the league last season, averaging 105.8 yards per game, thanks to a number of reasons. First and foremost was that they lost their identity. With Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress, they suddenly thought they could air it out, and that was a colossal mistake. Of course, a weakened offensive line also had a lot to do with it, as did Shonn Greene taking a step back in his development. Can the presence of Tebow in the backfield help Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson? Sure. If the Jets can improve the line, then it’s possible the Jets can once again become a force on the ground with Tebow at the helm. Of course, the passing game will be almost nonexistent. 

• Which brings us to Ryan’s raison d’etre. Defense. The offense will be conservative this year no matter who is running the show. What the Jets need in order to win is for that defense to be a monster again. The only reason Tebow won as many games as he did in Denver last year was because the Broncos defense was stout. The Jets must field a top five defense in order to win. They did rank fifth in yards allowed last season, but 20^th in points allowed per game (nearly 23).

• What are the chances Sanchez rises to this challenge, becomes a true franchise quarterback and relegates Tebow to backup and change-of-pace Wildcat? Anything’s possible. But this is the least likely scenario.

Let the circus begin!

Quick thoughts on the Manning news

Five quick thoughts on the news today that Peyton Manning will be a Bronco:

• If you think a Denver Broncos team led by Peyton Manning -- even if he's not at 100 percent -- isn't dangerous, just consider this: John Fox got the Carolina Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, and then he led the Broncos to an AFC West title last year with Tim Tebow. I think it's safe to put a Manning-led Broncos team in the title hunt.

• Is Alex Smith really insulted that the 49ers would have preferred Manning over him? I'm guessing that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will make it clear to Smith that his pursuit of Manning had nothing to do with Smith and everything to do with trying to sign a future Hall of Famer with gas in the tank. If Smith doesn't understand that he's just a few notches below Manning, then he's delusional. And money aside, would he rather play for a staggering Dolphins squad than return to the cream of the NFC West? That's the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

• Speaking of the Dolphins... Given owner Steve Ross' desire for star power in Miami, Tebow to the Dolphins a no-brainer.

• It was just a few months ago the Oakland Raiders might have been considered the most talented team in the AFC West. They still have the best kicking game, but does anyone think they won't finish in last place?

• I'm still depressed that we won't get to enjoy a season of Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald together in Arizona. Sorry, Peyton, but you missed the boat here. That would have been more awesome than anything you do in Denver. Unless, of course, you win the Super Bowl.

Giants' signing of TE Bennett: Will it affect the 'C' word?

When you’re team is coming off a Super Bowl victory and setting out to defend the title, the offseason can be tricky. Obviously, there aren’t many holes to fill, although it’s inevitable some players will be moving on and need to be replaced. But when you don’t have to worry about wooing uber free agents like Peyton Manning and Mario Williams, the blueprint is a little clearer. There’s really just one major philosophy to adhere to: Don’t screw up the team chemistry.

Which brings us to Martellus Bennett.

After losing both of their pass-catching tight ends – Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum – to significant knee injuries in the Super Bowl XLVI win over the Patriots, finding a short-term solution for the position was a key task for Giants general manager Jerry Reese. He accomplished that goal by signing Bennett.

The 24-year-old Bennett showed some flashes of being a dangerous tight end in his four seasons with the Dallas Cowboys. But he hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since he scored four times as a rookie in 2008. More of a concern, though, might be that “c” word. Bennett is not exactly a wallflower. So how will he fit in the Big Apple?

I just wonder if Reese, when doing his research on Bennett, happened to read this NFL.com story. It’s a quiz from by buddy Adam Rank, who challenges readers to guess the source of some outlandish quotes – and the only two choices are Bennett or Charlie Sheen.

You’re in the same boat as Charlie Sheen. That means you’ve got some talent… and it also means you’re a little crazy.

The big winner here? Why it’s the New York press corps. They no longer have running back Brandon Jacobs as a go-to guy in the Giants’ locker room. It says here that Bennett will fill that role admirably.

If all he has to talk about is “chic farts” and Kim Kardashian’s butt (I’m giving it away some, but just check out the NFL.com link), then it’s all in good fun. But who knows? New York is not always a kind media market for loose cannons.

Will Bennett be comedy relief or bad chemistry? It remains to be seen, but when you’re the defending NFL champ, is that even a risk you want to take?

Peyton paired with Fitz would be legendary

If you’re a fan of pro football, how can you not root for Peyton Manning to sign with the Arizona Cardinals?

The prospect of Manning throwing to Larry Fitzgerald is delicious. Simply put, Manning-to-Fitzgerald has the potential to be the best passing tandem in NFL history.

Think about it. Manning had some outstanding seasons with Marvin Harrison, but who would you rather have in his prime, Harrison or Fitzgerald? Harrison is in the mix with a slew of potential Hall of Fame candidate receivers; Fitzgerald is above those guys. If Manning is healthy and can return to form, the connection with Fitzgerald would be unstoppable.

We already know the likes of Dan Marino, John Elway and Brett Favre never had a receiver as dynamic as Fitzgerald in their arsenals. Jim Kelly had Andre Reed, but he’s a notch below Fitzgerald.

The last time a future Hall of Fame QB and a future Hall of Fame WR teamed up? Well, that would be Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner, who was Arizona’s full-time starter from 2007-09. Here are Fitzgerald’s numbers for those three seasons:

293 receptions, 3,932 yards, 35 touchdowns

And that doesn’t include the record-shattering postseason numbers he notched during the Cardinals’ 2008 run to the Super Bowl.

And, oh yeah, there was another future Hall of Fame tandem in 2007, and their numbers speak for themselves. In 2007, Tom Brady passed for 4,807 yards and 50 touchdowns, with Randy Moss accounting for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns. The touchdown totals for both are single-season NFL records.

As far as players already enshrined in Canton, there are 10 modern-era QB/WR combinations in the Hall of Fame. As you go down this list, consider which of these dynamic duos would be more frightening to opposing defenses than Manning/Fitzgerald. Maybe one or two:

• Johnny Unitas and Raymond Berry
• Joe Namath and Don Maynard
• Bob Griese and Paul Warfield
• Terry Bradshaw and Lynn Swann
• Terry Bradshaw and John Stallworth
• Dan Fouts and Charlie Joiner
• Joe Montana and Jerry Rice
• Steve Young and Jerry Rice
• Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin 

Fitzgerald caught 80 passes for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns last season – with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton throwing him the football.

Of course, a healthy Manning will make any receiver look good wherever he goes. If he goes to Miami and Brandon Marshall remains focused, that pairing could be monstrous. If he goes to Denver, maybe Demaryius Thomas becomes a Pro Bowl receiver.

But if Peyton Manning goes to Arizona and is ready to play, then he and Larry Fitzgerald will be electric. All season long. It will be must-see football, and long-suffering Cardinals fans won’t be the only ones enjoying the show.

 Come on, Peyton. This needs to happen.

Super Mario reigns supreme over wacky 2006 draft

So the Texans have made it clear this offseason that they are intent on re-signing pass-rush specialist Mario Williams. Of course, whether or not he stays, it’s safe to say the Texans can officially be crowned the winners of the great draft debate of 2006.

You remember, that’s when so many people thought they were crazy for making Williams the first pick in the draft instead of taking Reggie Bush or hometown hero Vince Young. Sure, Bush did get a Super Bowl ring before his days in New Orleans came to an end, but it’s hard to imagine the Saints wouldn’t have won that title without the former Heisman Trophy winner. Bush did have his best season as a pro with the Dolphins in 2011, but let’s see him do that again before we decide he was ever worthy of the second overall pick, let a lone the first.

As for Young, well, there’s no question he wasn’t worthy. After a nice enough start to his career, he will now go down in NFL history best known for having dubbed the 2011 Eagles the “Dream Team.” And we all know how that turned out.

But when you take a closer look at the 2006 draft, it’s a perfect reminder that this whole process is little more than a crapshoot.

Foundation for the future? After five NFL seasons, barely half of the first-round picks from 2006 were still with the teams that drafted them. Some were good picks who simply left via free agency or trade – like Johnathan Joseph and Jay Cutler. Others were just busts – Laurence Maroney, Bobby Carpenter and some guy named Matt Leinart.

But even more to the point is a quick look at some other players drafted that year. While the Saints got Bush with the second overall pick, they also got WR Marques Colston… with the fourth-to-last pick. That would be pick number 252. Earlier in that seventh round, New Orleans drafted Zach Strief, who would become a starting offensive lineman. So they got two guys in the seventh round who turned out to be more valuable than the second overall pick.

The Titans, after settling for Young with that third overall pick, got feisty CB Cortland Finnegan in the seventh round.

Denver got Brandon Marshall in the fourth round. While he’s been in Miami with Bush, Denver still has Elvis Dumervil, who they got later that round.

While the Jaguars did something I consider the worst draft strategy ever – taking a tight end (in this case, Marcedes Lewis) in the first round, they did get Maurice Jones-Drew in the second.

There is no rhyme or reason here, folks. Doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t do their homework. This is not about teams making bad decisions (except for those dumb enough to take a tight end in the first). It’s about those of us in the media who think we can pass judgment the minute a pick is announced.

Sure, it’s fun. And the fans practically demand it. But guess what? We’re hardly ever right. The 2006 draft proved that from the first pick to the (fourth from) the last.

Whitney Houston's Super Bowl moment

I was glad to see this blog post on NFL.com recognizing Whitney Houston's place in NFL history. The music legend died Saturday at the age of 48. Which means she was just 27 years old when she took the field at Tampa Stadium to sing the National Anthem before Super Bowl XXV.

If you'll allow for a little first-person indulgence... I remember this well because I was a 25-year-old kid at his first Super Bowl that year, and I was on the field as well. Since the United States had just embarked on the Gulf War prior to that game, it was the first Super Bowl that featured hard-core security as you entered the stadium. It was the first time this country had been to war since Vietnam (tragically, it's old hat for today's generation of 25-year-olds), and there was an air of anxiety.

What I remember most about standing on the sidelines as Houston belted out an emotionally-charged "Star-Spangled Banner" wasn't her incredible singing (truth be told, it was lip-synced -- but it was still Whitney's voice). What I remember most was watching the reaction of the fans in the stadium.

Watching on TV could not have done it justice. Many of the fans in attendance were crying. Many more than usual were singing along. It was truly a stirring moment.

I'm not big on patriotic events, but this was one for the books. With the crowd in a frenzy after Houston's anthem, two teams that both wear red, white and blue took center stage for America's greatest sporting event, and they proceeded to play what is still the only Super Bowl ever decided by one point.

Super Bowl XXV remains a shining example of how sports in our culture can help ease tensions and bring people together. And Whitney Houston played a powerful role in it.

If not for Tyree and Manningham, Belichick is the greatest

For starters, let’s get one thing straight. Bill Belichick is a Hall of Fame coach regardless of what you think about the videotaping scandal. And as far as I’m concerned, it does not minimize my view of the man’s coaching ability. He was an integral part of two Super Bowl champions with the New York Giants, he presided over a dynasty with the New England Patriots that won three Super Bowls in four years, and he has kept the Patriots near the top of the NFL for more than a decade. Enough said.

Two painfully close losses to the Giants in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI don’t tarnish any legacy. He is one of just three head coaches (along with Hall of Famers Don Shula and tom Landry) to appear in five Super Bowls. That’s impressive, to say the least.

For those who just don’t like Belichick and point to spygate as a bone of contention to his greatness, Super Bowl XLVI came so close to elevating Belichick to another level.

How cool was it when NFL Films captured Belichick on the sidelines before the Giants’ game-winning drive, imploring his defense to make Eli Manning throw to Mario Manningham?

“This is still a Nicks and Cruz offense,” he shouted. “Make them throw to Manningham.”

Simply put, if Manningham doesn’t make that once-in-a-lifetime grab and keep his feet in-bounds on a perfect Manning pass to start that drive, then Belichick’s genius status is stronger than ever.

It played out just the way he wanted it to. Same as when he had the Giants right where he wanted them in Super Bowl XLII before David Tyree made the greatest play in Super Bowl history.

Think about it. Belichick is two crazy, improbable, unbelievable catches away from being a coach with five Super Bowl titles and a perfect season on his resume. And don’t forget, it’s not like those catches were made by Plaxico Burress or Hakeem Nicks or even Victor Cruz.

Belichick’s status as the unquestioned greatest coach in NFL history is held back by David Tyree and Mario Manningham. That’s almost too ridiculous to comprehend.

But if two unfathomable catches by two unfathomable Super Bowl heroes is all that stands between Belichick and re-naming the Vince Lombardi Trophy after him, then he’s at least earned the right to be in the conversation.

Ricky's tale had a familiar ring

The retirement this week of Ricky Williams, the once-dynamic and always enigmatic running back, reminded me of a player from the late '60s who followed a similar path. Ralph "Chip" Oliver wasn't as decorated a player coming out of college -- nobody traded their entire draft board for him -- but he was a natural talent who could have been a force had it not been for a, shall we say, alternative lifestyle.

Chip Oliver, a linebacker out of USC, was part of the Oakland Raiders' amazing 1968 draft class, a group led by Ken Stabler, Art Shell and George Atkinson. After one season, Shell recalls thinking Oliver, a fifth-round pick, might have been the best player from that class. John Madden, then the Raiders' linebackers coach, agreed when I asked him about Oliver a few years ago: Oliver was a Pro Bowl talent on the field.

Off the field, however, he was moving in a different direction. Of course, we're talking about a quirky kid from southern California who ended up in northern California during the Summer of Love. Just as Ricky Williams a few decades later embraced the yoga/meditation/spiritual world, Oliver became a hippie and left the Raiders to join a commune.

Just like Williams, Oliver maintained at the start that it was a purely spiritual, holistic movement that had nothing to do with drugs. Just like Williams, he later admitted to being a drug abuser. In Oliver's case, true to the times, he was on LSD and all forms of hallucinogenics he could get his hands on.

And like Williams, he eventually attempted a football comeback. Oliver, who had also become a vegetarian and lost more than 50 pounds by the time he showed up at Raiders camp in 1971, had no chance. But Madden, now the team's head coach, did everything he could for a player he cared a great deal about. He tried Oliver at safety, but it just didn't work.

Unlike Williams, Oliver faded into obscurity at that point. He wrote a book, "High for the Game," chronicling his journey, and then he pretty much disappeared.

One other quirky note about Oliver: While attending USC, he had done a little acting. And he even earned a part in the pilot for Norman Lear's soon-to-be iconic sitcom, "All in the Family." Oliver played the role of Archie Bunker's son-in-law -- a.k.a, Meathead -- the role eventually played by Rob Reiner when the series actually aired.

The bottom line: Ricky Williams leaves the NFL with us all thinking, "What if...?" The same could be said for Chip Oliver.