1. BUSTIN’ OUT
Congrats to NFL.com fantasy analyst Matt Smith. We thought
he was crazy for including the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew and Victor Cruz on
his preseason list of potential fantasy busts. But after a summer-long holdout,
few people expect to see MJD make a big impact early on. And while Cruz caught
6 passes for 58 yards for the Giants in their Wednesday night loss to
the Dallas Cowboys, he also had an alarming number of dropped passes.
Maybe Smith is onto something, which is why you have to keep
an eye on the most surprising player on his list of predicted busts: Carolina
Panthers QB Cam Newton. Can last year’s all-world rookie possibly fall flat
this week in Tampa?
2. WAIT, WHAT?
We’re all for making lineup decisions based heavily upon the
defenses our players are facing from week to week. But let’s not get carried
away. It seems like that’s what Derek Lofland of Fantasy Football Maniax has
done. His “Start of the Week” is a rookie RB making his NFL debut for
a team that went 4-12 last season. Sure, Doug Martin is facing a Carolina
Panthers team that was bad against the run last week, but really?
And wait, there’s more… High among his “other players to
start” is Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker, a player with all of 66 career
passing attempts under his belt. Sure the Titans are facing a New England
Patriots defense that was terrible against the pass last season, but Locker
isn’t even owned in 55 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues. Expecting a big
fantasy day from Locker may be a stretch.
3. BIG BEN’S BABY
WATCH
Big Ben is going to be a Big Daddy soon. That’s right,
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his wife are due to have their first child
this fall. Roethlisberger hasn’t divulged the date – but he has adamantly
stated that he will not miss the birth of his child, even if it means missing a
football game. That’s admirable. It’s also a potential nightmare if Big Ben is
your starting QB. So here’s what you do: After Roethlisberger lights it up in a
Sunday night shootout this week with Peyton Manning in Denver, trade him
immediately. Get whatever you can for him, and pick up Jake Locker... or someone else.
4. CLASH OF THE
TIGHT ENDS
We know, we know… Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have
forever changed the way we view tight ends in fantasy. These guys averaged 95
receptions, 1,318 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and they became fantasy darlings. If
you’ve got Gronk or Graham on your team, bully for you. If not, don’t sweat it…
The NFL is a copycat league; expect more action for all TEs. With
that in mind, it’s worth taking a look each week at the fantasy points against.
Based on how tight ends fared against defenses last season, here are four with favorable matchups this week:
Dustin Keller vs. Bills
Vernon Davis vs. Packers
Kyle Rudolph vs. Jaguars
Antonio Gates vs. Raiders
5. YO GABBERT,
GABBERT!
Poor Blaine Gabbert. After a miserable rookie season, the
Jaguars QB is only owned in 1.3 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues – that’s
lower than Christian Ponder! But what if Gabbert is ready to take a step up
this season? What if he can form a bond with first-round pick WR Justin
Blackmon? And what if the Jaguars’ Week 1 opponent were the Vikings,
who allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season? Yeah,
what if…
6. REACH FOR
MEACHEM?
Lance Moore or Robert Meachem? Who would you start this week if you had to choose between these two? According to a head-to-head analysis from Fantasypros.com,
18 of 26 fantast experts have Meachem ranked higher in Week 1 projections. Overall, the average of the 26 experts had Meachem projected as the 37th-best
WR this week, with Moore at 41.
But get this: NFL.com’s weekly projections – which are
compiled by EA Sports – have Meachem as the No. 9 WR this week. They say he’ll
have 80 yards and a TD against the Raiders Monday night. That’s the kind of
“out there” prediction we’ll be very interested to follow.
7. DECEPTIVE STAT
OF THE WEEK
Overheard on the sidelines at my son’s pee-wee football
practice this week: “I know the Browns suck, but they had the No. 2 pass
defense in the NFL last year. Bad matchup for Michael Vick this week.”
Uh, no. The reason Cleveland gave up the second-fewest
passing yards last season was because they ranked 30th in run
defense. Nobody had to pass on the Browns because they were too busy running
all over them. That’s good news for Eagles RB LeSean McCoy this week, but rest
assured Vick will get his points. Don’t be surprised if Philly’s first
offensive call is a play-action, 80-yard TD pass to Desean Jackson or Jeremy
Maclin.
8. FLYING FALCONS
A look at the final Fantasy Points Against stats from last
season shows the Chiefs allowed the fourth fewest passing yards per game.
Don’t let that scare you off if you own any offensive players from the Atlanta
Falcons, the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent. QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White and
Julio Jones are weekly must-starts regardless, but their value increases this
week against a K.C. defense that is without its star pass-rusher Tamba Hali,
who’s out this week serving a one-game suspension. Hali had 12 sacks last
season, and without his pressure on the QB, expect Ryan to compete for top Week
1 fantasy honors.
9. LINE DANCE
As bad as the New York Jets’ offensive line looked in
preseason, our friends at Footballguys.com still have them ranked as the
second-best o-line in the NFL. Hard to believe they can just flip a switch and
suddenly become the ground-and-pound attack Rex Ryan dreams about, but who knows?
The Jets face a strong defensive line in Week 1 when they host the Buffalo
Bills, so we’ll find out in a hurry if Footballguys.com knows something we
don’t.
10. WE LOVE MONDAY
The coolest thing about Week 1 in the NFL? There are TWO
games on Monday night! There is nothing in fantasy more exciting than when your
weekly matchup comes down to the Monday night game. With four teams playing
this Monday – Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders – that’s double the
chances your fantasy battle will go down to the wire this week. Think about it…
it’s entirely possible you can field a lineup that includes Philip Rivers, Ray
Rice, Darren McFadden, A.J. Green, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Antonio Gates,
Sebastian Janikowski and the Ravens defense. Know what that means? You could go
into Monday night trailing your opponent 100-0, and you’d still be favored to
win. So set your lineup accordingly, plant yourself in front of the TV and – as
T.O. would say – get your popcorn ready!
