Cy Young or Not, Jacob deGrom Has Cemented His Place in History

Mets fans have agonized over the lack of run support that Jacob deGrom has received during his stellar 2018 season. DeGrom currently leads the majors with a 1.77 earned run average, yet his record sits at a mediocre 9-9. As the season winds down to a merciful end, a study of starting pitchers over the last 70 years that have cracked the 2.00 ERA barrier shows how truly historic – and tragic – deGrom’s season has been.

DeGrom’s final start of the season is Wednesday night, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Cy Young Award? That’s been a hot-button topic that will not be resolved with one more start.

What is at stake is this: A loss would make deGrom the first starting pitcher in the modern era to finish with an ERA under 2.00 and a win-loss record under .500. A no-decision would make him the first in the group with a non-winning record and also the first with fewer than 10 wins. And considering he’s had 13 no-decisions already this season – 42 percent of his starts – the odds say he’ll finish 2018 with a .500 record.

Again, these numbers in no way reflect badly on deGrom. It’s all about his historic lack of run support.

A few more nuggets that put this feat in historical perspective:

• In the last 70 years, a total of 27 starting pitchers have posted an ERA under 2.00. Sandy Koufax did it three times; Luis Tiant, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez and Clayton Kershaw have done it twice.

• Of the 34 times it’s been done in that span, 17 of those seasons ended with a Cy Young Award. The sub-2.00 ERA helped produce a 20-win season 18 times.

• In 1968, six different pitchers had an ERA under 2.00 – led by Bob Gibson and his incomprehensible 1.12 ERA. Think about this: Tommy John, who allowed 1.98 runs per nine innings pitching for the Chicago White Sox that season, finished sixth in ERA.

• Tommy John went 10-5 in 1968 – the lowest win total among the 27 pitchers who had a sub-2.00 ERA.

• The closest any of these pitchers has come to a losing record was Sam McDowell, who went 15-14 for the Cleveland Indians in 1968, despite a 1.81 ERA. Unlike the 2018 Mets, the 1968 Indians finished with a winning record. That said, their team batting average was a paltry .234 (the ’18 Mets currently sit at .236.

• In 25 of the 34 sub-2.00 ERA seasons, the pitcher won at least twice as many games as he lost.

• The average win-loss record for these 34 seasons: 20-8. So in terms of history, deGrom is right about on average in terms of losses. But he’s a long way from the average win total.

Of course, Mets fans know that’s not deGrom’s fault.

Here’s a breakdown of the sub-2.00 ERAs over the last 70 years:

Year	Pitcher, Team	ERA	W-L
1955	Billy Pierce, White Sox	1.97	15-10
1963	Sandy Koufax, Dodgers	1.88	25-5
1964	Dean Chance, Angels	1.65	20-9
1964	Joe Horlen, White Sox	1.88	13-9
1964	Sandy Koufax, Dodgers	1.74	19-5
1966	Sandy Koufax, Dodgers	1.73	27-9
1966	Gary Peters, White Sox	1.98	12-10
1968	Bob Gibson, Cardinals	1.12	22-9
1968	Luis Tiant, Indians	1.60	21-9
1968	Sam McDowell, Indians	1.81	15-14
1968	Dave McNally, Orioles	1.95	22-10
1968	Denny McLain, Tigers	1.96	31-6
1968	Tommy John, White Sox	1.98	10-5
1971	Tom Seaver, Mets	1.76	20-10
1971	Vida Blue, Athletics	1.82	24-8
1971	Wilbur Wood, White Sox	1.87	22-13
1972	Luis Tiant, Red Sox	1.61	15-6
1972	Gaylord Perry, Indians	1.92	24-16
1972	Steve Carlton, Phillies	1.97	27-10
1972	Gary Nolan, Reds	1.99	15-5
1978	Ron Guidry, Yankees	1.74	25-3
1985	Doc Gooden, Mets	1.53	24-4
1985	John Tudor, Cardinals	1.93	21-8
1990	Roger Clemens, Red Sox	1.93	21-6
1994	Greg Maddux, Braves	1.56	16-6
1995	Greg Maddux, Braves	1.63	19-2
1996	Kevin Brown, Marlins	1.89	17-11
1997	Pedro Martinez, Expos	1.90	17-8
2000	Pedro Martinez, Red Sox	1.74	18-6
2005	Roger Clemens, Astros	1.87	13-8
2013	Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers	1.83	16-9
2014	Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers	1.77	21-3
2015	Zack Greinke, Dodgers	1.66	19-3
2015	Jake Arrieta, Cubs	1.77	22-6

Take the Quiz: Which Oscar-Nominated Sports Movies Are Based On True Stories?

For those too young to recall the events chronicled in "I, Tonya," which is nominated for three Academy Awards this year, raise your hand if you saw the movie and thought, "No way is this based on a true story!"

There have been several sports movies good enough for Oscar consideration over the years -- some based on true stories and others pure fiction. So... here's a quiz to see if you know the difference.

We’ll provide a brief description of 10 sports movies that have been honored at the Academy Awards -- five that are based on true stories and five that are total fiction. Can you guess which is which?

First, a few movies that we will not include here:

Rocky: Sylvester Stallone had always maintained that Rocky’s story was fiction – until recently admitting that it was “loosely based” on the career of real-life New Jersey boxer Chuck Wepner.

Heaven Can Wait: Los Angeles Rams QB Joe Pendleton (Warren Beatty) is killed in a car accident, but when his guardian angel realizes that Pendleton was taken too soon, he returns to Earth in a different body. (This story is almost as unbelievable as a backup quarterback leading the Philadelphia Eagles to their first NFL title in 78 years.)

Field of Dreams: If the story of Shoeless Joe Jackson and other long-dead Hall of Fame baseball players coming back to life in an Iowa cornfield isn’t true, why do so many fans visit that field every summer?

So, yeah, it’s too easy to guess that stories involving reincarnation and ghosts are not based on true stories. Let’s see how you fare with these:

1) Million Dollar Baby: The 2004 Best Picture also earned Hilary Swank the Best Actress Oscar for her portrayal of a tough female amateur boxer being mentored by grizzled trainer Clint Eastwood.

2) Chariots of Fire: The 1981 Best Picture honoree tells the story of two runners competing in the 1924 Olympics. As the movie poster says, “This is the story of two men who run … not to run … but to prove something to the world.”

3) Raging Bull: Martin Scorsese’s 1980 masterpiece about the turbulent life of a retired boxing champion. Many people think it was a crime that “Raging Bull” lost out to “Kramer vs. Kramer” for Best Picture, but the movie did earn a Best Actor Oscar for Robert DeNiro.

4) The Hustler: The story of young pool star “Fast” Eddie Felson (Paul Newman) taking on the champ, Minnesota Fats (Jackie Gleason), was nominated for Best Picture in 1961 – and it’s also credited with sparking a resurgence in the sport.

5) Jerry Maguire: Tom Cruise was nominated for Best Actor, playing the super-agent. Cuba Gooding Jr., who won Best Supporting Actor for his role as Cardinals receiver Rod Tidwell, had one of the best Oscaracceptance speeches of all-time.

6) The Blind Side: Sandra Bullock won Best Actress for this 2009 film about the white family in Tennessee that takes in an African-American high school football star from a broken home.

7) Hoosiers: In this 1986 classic, Gene Hackman plays coach Norman Dale, who leads a tiny Indiana high school to the state basketball championship in 1954.

8) Breaking Away: In this 1979 Best Picture nominee, a group of blue-collar teens from Bloomington, Indiana, enter the Little 500 bicycle race.

9) The Wrestler: Mickey Rourke was nominated for Best Actor for this 2008 portrayal of a down-and-out former professional wrestler battling health issues and internal demons.

10) The Hurricane: Denzel Washington was nominated for Best Actor in 1999, playing Rubin “Hurricane” Carter, a middleweight contender who is wrongly convicted of murder.

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How’d you do? Like “I, Tonya,” here are the five movies that were based on a true story: 2, 3, 6, 7, 10

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How Bill Parcells and I Helped the Saints Win the Super Bowl

Saints coach Sean Payton, talking on Radio Row Friday morning, mentioned that he still speaks to Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells regularly. Which got me to reminiscing about the famous meeting these two coaches had prior to Super Bowl XLIV – right after I thought Parcells had busted me.

Here’s how it went down…

It’s Monday of Super Bowl week in 2010, and the Saints are getting ready to play the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida. As senior editor of NFL.com, I was getting ready to moderate a live online chat with Parcells, then president of the Miami Dolphins. Before leaving the media center to meet Parcells at the Dolphins’ facility, one of our NFL.com writers was telling me that he was having a hard time reaching Parcells. Since Payton was a longtime assistant Parcells, the writer wanted Tuna’s take on how the Saints coach might approach the big game.

No problem, I told my writer. The chat was going to be me asking Parcells questions submitted by fans. I’ll just slip in your question, couched as a fan’s query, and you can use the answer in your story. Easy.

It was a rainy Monday when we arrived at the Dolphins facility. The Saints were on their way as well – they would be practicing later that afternoon on the Dolphins’ practice field. I’m with my friend and colleague, Gil Brandt, who helped set up the chat. We meet with Parcells and set up in the PR director’s office. The live chat begins.

After getting a couple of questions in, I’m ready to get my writer his quote. Even though it’s not technically a fan-submitted question, I decide to keep it semi-authentic by using the writer’s first name and hometown when asking the question:

“Steve from Atlanta wants to know, How will Sean Payton …” I don’t remember the exact question, but that’s irrelevant. I ask it and get ready to type in the answer. Parcells pauses, then turns to Gil sitting next to him.

“That guy’s been trying to call me all week,” Parcells says.

Oh, shit. “Steve from Atlanta” was all he needed to hear to know we were pulling a fast one. I’m busted… by Bill Parcells. I froze.

Parcells continued his aside to Gil: “Well, his team is coming over here now for practice, so I guess I’ll talk to him then.”

Ohhhh… He wasn’t talking about Steve from Atlanta calling him all week. He was talking about Payton. Not sure if my sigh of relief was visible to the others in the room, but it felt like I just got a death row pardon.

The rest of the chat went smoothly. Steve from Atlanta got his quote and wrote a great story, as usual. But here’s the other significant follow-up…

As we were leaving the facility, the Saints had just arrived. Parcells met in private with Payton after the team practice. And it was there that Parcells told Payton something that arguably gave the Saints a Super Bowl victory. Parcells told Payton he should be bold on special teams and think about doing something to steal a possession.

That was the spark that led Payton to call for an onside kick to start the second half of Super bowl XLIV. The Saints recovered and never looked back, capturing the franchise’s first and only NFL crown.

Parcells can officially take credit for winning two Super Bowls with the Giants, and he can take a little credit for the Saints’ win.

Me? Not so much. But who knows? The facts are these: Parcells was talking to me for half an hour, then he gave Sean Payton advice that helped the Saints win the Super Bowl.

Sounds like I can take a little credit, right?

Why the Philadelphia Eagles Will Win Super Bowl LII

When it comes to sports, fate can be a funny thing. In this day and age of analytics, where numbers tell the story and there is no shortage of information at one’s disposal to predict the outcome of a sporting event, is there any room left to fate?

Hell yes.

It’s really all a matter of fate, since fate can be interpreted in any direction. Super Bowl LII is the ultimate example.

After all, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles are fairly evenly matched. They had identical 13-3 records during the regular season. They finished tied for second in the NFL in scoring offense (28.6 points per game). The Eagles were fourth in scoring defense (18.4 ppg) while the Patriots were a tick behind in fifth (18.5).

Statistically, the biggest difference is in defensive yards allowed. The Eagles ranked fourth overall, allowing 306.5 yards per game, while the Patriots ranked 29^th (366.0). Philadelphia’s top-ranked run defense allowed just 79.2 yards per game, while New England came in at 20 (114.8).

We’ll concede that the mere presence of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at least balances out the Eagles’ edge on defense. Okay, maybe they more than balance the spreadsheet.

So let’s bring fate into the mix. Not only are the Eagles long overdue to win it all -- they haven’t been crowned NFL champions since 1960 – but the Patriots have captured the Lombardi Trophy five times in the last 16 years. That’s downright obscene.

But here’s the thing: It’s not just that the New England Patriots are due to lose. It’s that they have been creeping ever so close to getting that comeuppance. Give Brady and Belichick all the credit in the world, but there’s no denying this basic truth: Their opponents did plenty to help them win their last two Super Bowls.

The Seahawks gave them Super Bowl XLIX with a terrible call at the goal line, allowing Malcolm Butler to make a game-saving interception instead of letting Marshawn Lynch run for a game-winning score with 20 seconds left.

Last year, the Patriots amazingly came back from a 28-3 deficit to upend the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. Sure, the comeback was magnificent. But it’s wrong not to pin that loss on Atlanta’s inability to kill the clock.

The Patriots are truly one of the best teams in NFL history, a dynasty of the 21^st Century. It would be totally unfair to call them lucky… but isn’t it fair to say that they’ve had some good fortune in those last two Super Bowl wins?

Even this season, fortune smiled on them. Shouldn’t they have lost that Week 15 game in Pittsburgh? First, the Steelers had a game-winning Jesse James TD catch overturned. Then safety Duron Harmon picked off a rushed Ben Roethlisberger pass at the goal line to seal the win. Without that victory, Pittsburgh would have been the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the playoffs might have been different.

That’s as far as I’ll take it. The Jaguars didn’t choke in the AFC title game. The Patriots more than earned their fourth-quarter comeback win over Jacksonville.

Still, it was yet another case of New England tempting fate. How many lives does this cat have?

Simply put: The Eagles are overdue to win a championship, and the Patriots are due to come up short.

Eagles 23, Patriots 20