Cy Young or Not, Jacob deGrom Has Cemented His Place in History

Mets fans have agonized over the lack of run support that Jacob deGrom has received during his stellar 2018 season. DeGrom currently leads the majors with a 1.77 earned run average, yet his record sits at a mediocre 9-9. As the season winds down to a merciful end, a study of starting pitchers over the last 70 years that have cracked the 2.00 ERA barrier shows how truly historic – and tragic – deGrom’s season has been.

DeGrom’s final start of the season is Wednesday night, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Cy Young Award? That’s been a hot-button topic that will not be resolved with one more start.

What is at stake is this: A loss would make deGrom the first starting pitcher in the modern era to finish with an ERA under 2.00 and a win-loss record under .500. A no-decision would make him the first in the group with a non-winning record and also the first with fewer than 10 wins. And considering he’s had 13 no-decisions already this season – 42 percent of his starts – the odds say he’ll finish 2018 with a .500 record.

Again, these numbers in no way reflect badly on deGrom. It’s all about his historic lack of run support.

A few more nuggets that put this feat in historical perspective:

• In the last 70 years, a total of 27 starting pitchers have posted an ERA under 2.00. Sandy Koufax did it three times; Luis Tiant, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez and Clayton Kershaw have done it twice.

• Of the 34 times it’s been done in that span, 17 of those seasons ended with a Cy Young Award. The sub-2.00 ERA helped produce a 20-win season 18 times.

• In 1968, six different pitchers had an ERA under 2.00 – led by Bob Gibson and his incomprehensible 1.12 ERA. Think about this: Tommy John, who allowed 1.98 runs per nine innings pitching for the Chicago White Sox that season, finished sixth in ERA.

• Tommy John went 10-5 in 1968 – the lowest win total among the 27 pitchers who had a sub-2.00 ERA.

• The closest any of these pitchers has come to a losing record was Sam McDowell, who went 15-14 for the Cleveland Indians in 1968, despite a 1.81 ERA. Unlike the 2018 Mets, the 1968 Indians finished with a winning record. That said, their team batting average was a paltry .234 (the ’18 Mets currently sit at .236.

• In 25 of the 34 sub-2.00 ERA seasons, the pitcher won at least twice as many games as he lost.

• The average win-loss record for these 34 seasons: 20-8. So in terms of history, deGrom is right about on average in terms of losses. But he’s a long way from the average win total.

Of course, Mets fans know that’s not deGrom’s fault.

Here’s a breakdown of the sub-2.00 ERAs over the last 70 years:

Year	Pitcher, Team	ERA	W-L
1955	Billy Pierce, White Sox	1.97	15-10
1963	Sandy Koufax, Dodgers	1.88	25-5
1964	Dean Chance, Angels	1.65	20-9
1964	Joe Horlen, White Sox	1.88	13-9
1964	Sandy Koufax, Dodgers	1.74	19-5
1966	Sandy Koufax, Dodgers	1.73	27-9
1966	Gary Peters, White Sox	1.98	12-10
1968	Bob Gibson, Cardinals	1.12	22-9
1968	Luis Tiant, Indians	1.60	21-9
1968	Sam McDowell, Indians	1.81	15-14
1968	Dave McNally, Orioles	1.95	22-10
1968	Denny McLain, Tigers	1.96	31-6
1968	Tommy John, White Sox	1.98	10-5
1971	Tom Seaver, Mets	1.76	20-10
1971	Vida Blue, Athletics	1.82	24-8
1971	Wilbur Wood, White Sox	1.87	22-13
1972	Luis Tiant, Red Sox	1.61	15-6
1972	Gaylord Perry, Indians	1.92	24-16
1972	Steve Carlton, Phillies	1.97	27-10
1972	Gary Nolan, Reds	1.99	15-5
1978	Ron Guidry, Yankees	1.74	25-3
1985	Doc Gooden, Mets	1.53	24-4
1985	John Tudor, Cardinals	1.93	21-8
1990	Roger Clemens, Red Sox	1.93	21-6
1994	Greg Maddux, Braves	1.56	16-6
1995	Greg Maddux, Braves	1.63	19-2
1996	Kevin Brown, Marlins	1.89	17-11
1997	Pedro Martinez, Expos	1.90	17-8
2000	Pedro Martinez, Red Sox	1.74	18-6
2005	Roger Clemens, Astros	1.87	13-8
2013	Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers	1.83	16-9
2014	Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers	1.77	21-3
2015	Zack Greinke, Dodgers	1.66	19-3
2015	Jake Arrieta, Cubs	1.77	22-6