NFL Week 1 fantasy: 10 things you need to know

Congratulations to those of you who had Tony Romo or Kevin Ogletree or DeMarco Murray in your fantasy lineups this week. For the rest of you, here are some news and notes to get you going before you finalize your Week 1 fantasy lineup:

1. BUSTIN’ OUT

Congrats to NFL.com fantasy analyst Matt Smith. We thought he was crazy for including the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew and Victor Cruz on his preseason list of potential fantasy busts. But after a summer-long holdout, few people expect to see MJD make a big impact early on. And while Cruz caught 6 passes for 58 yards for the Giants in their Wednesday night loss to the Dallas Cowboys, he also had an alarming number of dropped passes.

Maybe Smith is onto something, which is why you have to keep an eye on the most surprising player on his list of predicted busts: Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton. Can last year’s all-world rookie possibly fall flat this week in Tampa?

2. WAIT, WHAT?

We’re all for making lineup decisions based heavily upon the defenses our players are facing from week to week. But let’s not get carried away. It seems like that’s what Derek Lofland of Fantasy Football Maniax has done. His “Start of the Week” is a rookie RB making his NFL debut for a team that went 4-12 last season. Sure, Doug Martin is facing a Carolina Panthers team that was bad against the run last week, but really?

And wait, there’s more… High among his “other players to start” is Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker, a player with all of 66 career passing attempts under his belt. Sure the Titans are facing a New England Patriots defense that was terrible against the pass last season, but Locker isn’t even owned in 55 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues. Expecting a big fantasy day from Locker may be a stretch.

3. BIG BEN’S BABY WATCH

Big Ben is going to be a Big Daddy soon. That’s right, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his wife are due to have their first child this fall. Roethlisberger hasn’t divulged the date – but he has adamantly stated that he will not miss the birth of his child, even if it means missing a football game. That’s admirable. It’s also a potential nightmare if Big Ben is your starting QB. So here’s what you do: After Roethlisberger lights it up in a Sunday night shootout this week with Peyton Manning in Denver, trade him immediately. Get whatever you can for him, and pick up Jake Locker... or someone else.

4. CLASH OF THE TIGHT ENDS

We know, we know… Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have forever changed the way we view tight ends in fantasy. These guys averaged 95 receptions, 1,318 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and they became fantasy darlings. If you’ve got Gronk or Graham on your team, bully for you. If not, don’t sweat it… The NFL is a copycat league; expect more action for all TEs. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look each week at the fantasy points against. Based on how tight ends fared against defenses last season, here are four with favorable matchups this week:

Dustin Keller vs. Bills

Vernon Davis vs. Packers

Kyle Rudolph vs. Jaguars

Antonio Gates vs. Raiders

5. YO GABBERT, GABBERT!

Poor Blaine Gabbert. After a miserable rookie season, the Jaguars QB is only owned in 1.3 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues – that’s lower than Christian Ponder! But what if Gabbert is ready to take a step up this season? What if he can form a bond with first-round pick WR Justin Blackmon? And what if the Jaguars’ Week 1 opponent were the Vikings, who allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season? Yeah, what if…

6. REACH FOR MEACHEM?

Lance Moore or Robert Meachem? Who would you start this week if you had to choose between these two? According to a head-to-head analysis from Fantasypros.com, 18 of 26 fantast experts have Meachem ranked higher in Week 1 projections. Overall, the average of the 26 experts had Meachem projected as the 37^th-best WR this week, with Moore at 41.

But get this: NFL.com’s weekly projections – which are compiled by EA Sports – have Meachem as the No. 9 WR this week. They say he’ll have 80 yards and a TD against the Raiders Monday night. That’s the kind of “out there” prediction we’ll be very interested to follow.

7. DECEPTIVE STAT OF THE WEEK

Overheard on the sidelines at my son’s pee-wee football practice this week: “I know the Browns suck, but they had the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL last year. Bad matchup for Michael Vick this week.”

Uh, no. The reason Cleveland gave up the second-fewest passing yards last season was because they ranked 30^th in run defense. Nobody had to pass on the Browns because they were too busy running all over them. That’s good news for Eagles RB LeSean McCoy this week, but rest assured Vick will get his points. Don’t be surprised if Philly’s first offensive call is a play-action, 80-yard TD pass to Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

8. FLYING FALCONS

A look at the final Fantasy Points Against stats from last season shows the Chiefs allowed the fourth fewest passing yards per game. Don’t let that scare you off if you own any offensive players from the Atlanta Falcons, the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent. QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones are weekly must-starts regardless, but their value increases this week against a K.C. defense that is without its star pass-rusher Tamba Hali, who’s out this week serving a one-game suspension. Hali had 12 sacks last season, and without his pressure on the QB, expect Ryan to compete for top Week 1 fantasy honors.

9. LINE DANCE

As bad as the New York Jets’ offensive line looked in preseason, our friends at Footballguys.com still have them ranked as the second-best o-line in the NFL. Hard to believe they can just flip a switch and suddenly become the ground-and-pound attack Rex Ryan dreams about, but who knows? The Jets face a strong defensive line in Week 1 when they host the Buffalo Bills, so we’ll find out in a hurry if Footballguys.com knows something we don’t.

10. WE LOVE MONDAY

The coolest thing about Week 1 in the NFL? There are TWO games on Monday night! There is nothing in fantasy more exciting than when your weekly matchup comes down to the Monday night game. With four teams playing this Monday – Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders – that’s double the chances your fantasy battle will go down to the wire this week. Think about it… it’s entirely possible you can field a lineup that includes Philip Rivers, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, A.J. Green, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Antonio Gates, Sebastian Janikowski and the Ravens defense. Know what that means? You could go into Monday night trailing your opponent 100-0, and you’d still be favored to win. So set your lineup accordingly, plant yourself in front of the TV and – as T.O. would say – get your popcorn ready!