Countdown to Kaepernick injury

Peter King had a note in MMQB a few weeks ago about how Colin Kaepernick was working with a speed trainer during the offseason. This was supposed to strike fear into the hearts of NFL defenses. More likely, defensive coordinators are saying to themselves, “Bring it on.”

Speed wasn’t exactly a weakness for Kaepernick, already one of the fastest quarterbacks in the NFL. He took over the starting gig for the San Francisco 49ers midway through the 2012 season and led them to the Super Bowl by making big plays with both his arm and his feet. He earned a place among the league’s exciting new breed of QB, alongside Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, running the read option and pistol, and whatever else you want to call it.

Problem is, Kaepernick's time would have been better spent studying opposing defenses or working out with his receivers. I’m not saying he didn’t do that, but it should have been a much greater focus than speed training.

Because unless Kaepernick runs out of bounds or scores a touchdown every time he ventures out of the pocket, he will certainly get hit more than the average NFL quarterback. And he WILL get injured this season.

For all of Robert Griffin III’s exciting play as a rookie last season, he didn’t make it all the way through. Close, but not close enough. Kaepernick made it, but he didn’t become the starter in San Francisco until Week 11.

In his seven regular-season starts last year, Kaepernick averaged six rushing attempts per game and overall for the season he finished with 31.9 rushing yards per game. That was good for fourth among quarterbacks. Two of the three QBs who rushed for more yards per game – RGIII and Michael Vick – missed some playing time due to injury. The third was Cam Newton, who’s got 15 pounds on Kaepernick.

Maybe Kaepernick would have been better served building muscle mass during the offseason as opposed to working on his speed.

It will certainly be interesting to see how offenses evolve this season after last year’s success with the read option and pistol. No doubt, defensive coordinators have been working hard throughout the offseason to devise a plan to stop the spread of the passing attacks that have moved rapidly from the college landscape to the pros.

The one thing they know they can do: When the QB is out of the pocket, hit him. New rules that protect ball carriers will not prevent running quarterbacks from being hit hard by linebackers who smell blood.

Will the extra speed make a difference for Kaepernick? At times, absolutely. There will be occasions when his added speed and quickness helps him buy more time – in or out of the pocket – to find an open receiver and make a big play. There will be times when he is forced to scramble and that extra burst helps him elude a defender and make a big run.

Kaepernick is certainly a rising star in the league. And he is a strong passer. The concern isn’t his skill set – it’s his mind set. Great quarterbacks – all great players, for that matter – constantly strive to get better.

Kaepernick is already good but there’s always room for improvement. Alas, speed was not an area he needed to improve upon.

NFL Week 1 fantasy: 10 things you need to know

Congratulations to those of you who had Tony Romo or Kevin Ogletree or DeMarco Murray in your fantasy lineups this week. For the rest of you, here are some news and notes to get you going before you finalize your Week 1 fantasy lineup:

1. BUSTIN’ OUT

Congrats to NFL.com fantasy analyst Matt Smith. We thought he was crazy for including the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew and Victor Cruz on his preseason list of potential fantasy busts. But after a summer-long holdout, few people expect to see MJD make a big impact early on. And while Cruz caught 6 passes for 58 yards for the Giants in their Wednesday night loss to the Dallas Cowboys, he also had an alarming number of dropped passes.

Maybe Smith is onto something, which is why you have to keep an eye on the most surprising player on his list of predicted busts: Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton. Can last year’s all-world rookie possibly fall flat this week in Tampa?

2. WAIT, WHAT?

We’re all for making lineup decisions based heavily upon the defenses our players are facing from week to week. But let’s not get carried away. It seems like that’s what Derek Lofland of Fantasy Football Maniax has done. His “Start of the Week” is a rookie RB making his NFL debut for a team that went 4-12 last season. Sure, Doug Martin is facing a Carolina Panthers team that was bad against the run last week, but really?

And wait, there’s more… High among his “other players to start” is Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker, a player with all of 66 career passing attempts under his belt. Sure the Titans are facing a New England Patriots defense that was terrible against the pass last season, but Locker isn’t even owned in 55 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues. Expecting a big fantasy day from Locker may be a stretch.

3. BIG BEN’S BABY WATCH

Big Ben is going to be a Big Daddy soon. That’s right, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his wife are due to have their first child this fall. Roethlisberger hasn’t divulged the date – but he has adamantly stated that he will not miss the birth of his child, even if it means missing a football game. That’s admirable. It’s also a potential nightmare if Big Ben is your starting QB. So here’s what you do: After Roethlisberger lights it up in a Sunday night shootout this week with Peyton Manning in Denver, trade him immediately. Get whatever you can for him, and pick up Jake Locker... or someone else.

4. CLASH OF THE TIGHT ENDS

We know, we know… Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have forever changed the way we view tight ends in fantasy. These guys averaged 95 receptions, 1,318 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and they became fantasy darlings. If you’ve got Gronk or Graham on your team, bully for you. If not, don’t sweat it… The NFL is a copycat league; expect more action for all TEs. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look each week at the fantasy points against. Based on how tight ends fared against defenses last season, here are four with favorable matchups this week:

Dustin Keller vs. Bills

Vernon Davis vs. Packers

Kyle Rudolph vs. Jaguars

Antonio Gates vs. Raiders

5. YO GABBERT, GABBERT!

Poor Blaine Gabbert. After a miserable rookie season, the Jaguars QB is only owned in 1.3 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues – that’s lower than Christian Ponder! But what if Gabbert is ready to take a step up this season? What if he can form a bond with first-round pick WR Justin Blackmon? And what if the Jaguars’ Week 1 opponent were the Vikings, who allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season? Yeah, what if…

6. REACH FOR MEACHEM?

Lance Moore or Robert Meachem? Who would you start this week if you had to choose between these two? According to a head-to-head analysis from Fantasypros.com, 18 of 26 fantast experts have Meachem ranked higher in Week 1 projections. Overall, the average of the 26 experts had Meachem projected as the 37^th-best WR this week, with Moore at 41.

But get this: NFL.com’s weekly projections – which are compiled by EA Sports – have Meachem as the No. 9 WR this week. They say he’ll have 80 yards and a TD against the Raiders Monday night. That’s the kind of “out there” prediction we’ll be very interested to follow.

7. DECEPTIVE STAT OF THE WEEK

Overheard on the sidelines at my son’s pee-wee football practice this week: “I know the Browns suck, but they had the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL last year. Bad matchup for Michael Vick this week.”

Uh, no. The reason Cleveland gave up the second-fewest passing yards last season was because they ranked 30^th in run defense. Nobody had to pass on the Browns because they were too busy running all over them. That’s good news for Eagles RB LeSean McCoy this week, but rest assured Vick will get his points. Don’t be surprised if Philly’s first offensive call is a play-action, 80-yard TD pass to Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

8. FLYING FALCONS

A look at the final Fantasy Points Against stats from last season shows the Chiefs allowed the fourth fewest passing yards per game. Don’t let that scare you off if you own any offensive players from the Atlanta Falcons, the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent. QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones are weekly must-starts regardless, but their value increases this week against a K.C. defense that is without its star pass-rusher Tamba Hali, who’s out this week serving a one-game suspension. Hali had 12 sacks last season, and without his pressure on the QB, expect Ryan to compete for top Week 1 fantasy honors.

9. LINE DANCE

As bad as the New York Jets’ offensive line looked in preseason, our friends at Footballguys.com still have them ranked as the second-best o-line in the NFL. Hard to believe they can just flip a switch and suddenly become the ground-and-pound attack Rex Ryan dreams about, but who knows? The Jets face a strong defensive line in Week 1 when they host the Buffalo Bills, so we’ll find out in a hurry if Footballguys.com knows something we don’t.

10. WE LOVE MONDAY

The coolest thing about Week 1 in the NFL? There are TWO games on Monday night! There is nothing in fantasy more exciting than when your weekly matchup comes down to the Monday night game. With four teams playing this Monday – Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders – that’s double the chances your fantasy battle will go down to the wire this week. Think about it… it’s entirely possible you can field a lineup that includes Philip Rivers, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, A.J. Green, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Antonio Gates, Sebastian Janikowski and the Ravens defense. Know what that means? You could go into Monday night trailing your opponent 100-0, and you’d still be favored to win. So set your lineup accordingly, plant yourself in front of the TV and – as T.O. would say – get your popcorn ready!

Top draft pick to Hall of Fame? Not in the '90s

Interesting note courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s web site, listing the 13 members of the Hall who were first overall draft picks. Did you think that number would be higher? Let’s take a closer look.

From 1960-1989, the first overall pick produced exactly three Hall of Famers per decade. That meant that the teams picking first overall in those 30 years had a 30 percent chance of landing a future Hall of Famer. Any GM would take those odds, right?

It’s the dreaded ‘90s that water down the numbers. As of now, there are zero top picks from the ‘90s in Canton. That will change as soon as Peyton Manning (1998) becomes eligible. And eventually, 1997 top pick Orlando Pace might give the ‘90s two No. 1 Hall of Famers. After that, however, none of the remaining eight top picks is even close to consideration.

There’s still plenty of history to be written for the top picks of the 2000s, but the first 10 years of this century don’t look much better than the ‘90s in terms of first overall picks. Two Super Bowl MVPs for Eli Manning (2004) put him in the mix. The jury is still way out there on Michael Vick, Mario Williams and Matt Stafford, but that’s about it.

Interestingly, while there have been 13 No. 1 picks to reach the Hall, a total of 12 Hall of Famers were No. 2 overall picks. The most recent was Marshall Faulk (1994) and there are two more that have a decent shot (Julius Peppers, 2002, and Calvin Johnson, 2007).

Look, picking at the top of the draft by no means guarantees you a Hall of Fame player. The problem is not missing out on a superstar; it’s passing on a superstar in favor of a bust. And when you look at this list of the top two picks since 1990, you find more busts than winners. Forget about Hall of Fame… Pro Bowl would be nice.

Year	No. 1 Pick	No. 2 Pick
1990	Jeff George	Blair Thomas
1991	Russell Maryland	Eric Turner
1992	Steve Emtman	Quentin Coryatt
1993	Drew Bledsoe	Rick Mirer
1994	Dan Wilkinson	Marshall Faulk
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Tony Boselli
1996	Keyshwn Johnson	Kevin Hardy
1997	Orlando Pace	Darrell Russell
1998	Peyton Manning	Ryan Leaf
1999	Tim Couch	Donovan McNabb
2000	Courtney Brown	LaVar Arrington
2001	Michael Vick	Leonard Davis
2002	David Carr	Julius Peppers
2003	Carson Palmer	Charles Rogers
2004	Eli Manning	Robert Gallery
2005	Alex Smith	Ronnie Brown
2006	Mario Williams	Reggie Bush
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Calvin Johnson
2008	Jake Long	Chris Long
2009	Matt Stafford	Jason Smith
2010	Sam Bradford	Ndamukong Suh
2011	Cam Newton	Von Miller