NFL Conference Title Games: Cream Rises To The Top

Russell Baxter – a.k.a. @BaxFootballGuru – tweeted this NFL stat last night:

Best regular season W-L record, 2010-12:

New England Patriots        39-9

Atlanta Falcons                   36-12

Green Bay Packers            36-12

Baltimore Ravens               34-14

Pittsburgh Steelers             32-16

New Orleans Saints           31-17

San Francisco 49ers          30-17-1

Interesting. So of the seven teams with the best overall regular-season record over the last three seasons, four of them are playing this weekend in the conference championship games, one lost in the divisional round… and two – the Saints and the Steelers – missed the playoffs entirely.

What does this mean? It indicates the Saints and Steelers had pretty significant dropoffs this season. Neither was a huge surprise, however, seeing as the Saints faced the distraction of Bounty-gate and the Steelers dealt with heavy doses of injury and aging.

The Packers, at least, have a Lombardi Trophy to show for this three-year success. That leaves the four teams playing this Sunday. The Patriots are no strangers to the Super Bowl and were there just a year ago. The Ravens haven’t been there since 2000 and the Falcons and 49ers must go back to the ‘90s for their last trips to the big game.

Which of these four will get to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII? Here’s how it will go down:

49ers at Falcons:

While not spectacular, the Falcons defense has been every bit as solid as the 49ers defense this season. Atlanta has only allowed more than 28 points twice this season and did not allow more than 31 at all. San Francisco allowed more than 31 twice. The star of this game will be Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who will find a way to keep his defense disciplined enough to not get beat by Colin Kaepernick. And if Kaepernick is in check, then Matt Ryan will have little trouble scoring enough points to send the Falcons to the Super Bowl.

The pick: Falcons 23, 49ers 17

Ravens at Patriots:

Is it crazy to think that New England – a team that gave up a gazillion yards a game earlier this season – could actually be the best defense still alive in the postseason? Maybe, but there’s something to it. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has something to do with that; the maturation of young players with talent has something to do with that. And oh, yeah, there’s that Vince Wilfork guy up front. Even if you don’t buy into the improvement of the Patriots defense, you know that Bill Belichick will find a way to neutralize the Ravens’ most dangerous weapon, receiver Torrey Smith. That being the case, and considering you know Tom Brady and the offense will get their share of points, then Ray Rice must have a monster game to keep the Ravens in this thing. Won’t happen.

The pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 20

NFL Week 1 fantasy: 10 things you need to know

Congratulations to those of you who had Tony Romo or Kevin Ogletree or DeMarco Murray in your fantasy lineups this week. For the rest of you, here are some news and notes to get you going before you finalize your Week 1 fantasy lineup:

1. BUSTIN’ OUT

Congrats to NFL.com fantasy analyst Matt Smith. We thought he was crazy for including the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew and Victor Cruz on his preseason list of potential fantasy busts. But after a summer-long holdout, few people expect to see MJD make a big impact early on. And while Cruz caught 6 passes for 58 yards for the Giants in their Wednesday night loss to the Dallas Cowboys, he also had an alarming number of dropped passes.

Maybe Smith is onto something, which is why you have to keep an eye on the most surprising player on his list of predicted busts: Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton. Can last year’s all-world rookie possibly fall flat this week in Tampa?

2. WAIT, WHAT?

We’re all for making lineup decisions based heavily upon the defenses our players are facing from week to week. But let’s not get carried away. It seems like that’s what Derek Lofland of Fantasy Football Maniax has done. His “Start of the Week” is a rookie RB making his NFL debut for a team that went 4-12 last season. Sure, Doug Martin is facing a Carolina Panthers team that was bad against the run last week, but really?

And wait, there’s more… High among his “other players to start” is Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker, a player with all of 66 career passing attempts under his belt. Sure the Titans are facing a New England Patriots defense that was terrible against the pass last season, but Locker isn’t even owned in 55 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues. Expecting a big fantasy day from Locker may be a stretch.

3. BIG BEN’S BABY WATCH

Big Ben is going to be a Big Daddy soon. That’s right, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his wife are due to have their first child this fall. Roethlisberger hasn’t divulged the date – but he has adamantly stated that he will not miss the birth of his child, even if it means missing a football game. That’s admirable. It’s also a potential nightmare if Big Ben is your starting QB. So here’s what you do: After Roethlisberger lights it up in a Sunday night shootout this week with Peyton Manning in Denver, trade him immediately. Get whatever you can for him, and pick up Jake Locker... or someone else.

4. CLASH OF THE TIGHT ENDS

We know, we know… Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have forever changed the way we view tight ends in fantasy. These guys averaged 95 receptions, 1,318 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and they became fantasy darlings. If you’ve got Gronk or Graham on your team, bully for you. If not, don’t sweat it… The NFL is a copycat league; expect more action for all TEs. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look each week at the fantasy points against. Based on how tight ends fared against defenses last season, here are four with favorable matchups this week:

Dustin Keller vs. Bills

Vernon Davis vs. Packers

Kyle Rudolph vs. Jaguars

Antonio Gates vs. Raiders

5. YO GABBERT, GABBERT!

Poor Blaine Gabbert. After a miserable rookie season, the Jaguars QB is only owned in 1.3 percent of NFL.com fantasy leagues – that’s lower than Christian Ponder! But what if Gabbert is ready to take a step up this season? What if he can form a bond with first-round pick WR Justin Blackmon? And what if the Jaguars’ Week 1 opponent were the Vikings, who allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season? Yeah, what if…

6. REACH FOR MEACHEM?

Lance Moore or Robert Meachem? Who would you start this week if you had to choose between these two? According to a head-to-head analysis from Fantasypros.com, 18 of 26 fantast experts have Meachem ranked higher in Week 1 projections. Overall, the average of the 26 experts had Meachem projected as the 37^th-best WR this week, with Moore at 41.

But get this: NFL.com’s weekly projections – which are compiled by EA Sports – have Meachem as the No. 9 WR this week. They say he’ll have 80 yards and a TD against the Raiders Monday night. That’s the kind of “out there” prediction we’ll be very interested to follow.

7. DECEPTIVE STAT OF THE WEEK

Overheard on the sidelines at my son’s pee-wee football practice this week: “I know the Browns suck, but they had the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL last year. Bad matchup for Michael Vick this week.”

Uh, no. The reason Cleveland gave up the second-fewest passing yards last season was because they ranked 30^th in run defense. Nobody had to pass on the Browns because they were too busy running all over them. That’s good news for Eagles RB LeSean McCoy this week, but rest assured Vick will get his points. Don’t be surprised if Philly’s first offensive call is a play-action, 80-yard TD pass to Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

8. FLYING FALCONS

A look at the final Fantasy Points Against stats from last season shows the Chiefs allowed the fourth fewest passing yards per game. Don’t let that scare you off if you own any offensive players from the Atlanta Falcons, the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent. QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones are weekly must-starts regardless, but their value increases this week against a K.C. defense that is without its star pass-rusher Tamba Hali, who’s out this week serving a one-game suspension. Hali had 12 sacks last season, and without his pressure on the QB, expect Ryan to compete for top Week 1 fantasy honors.

9. LINE DANCE

As bad as the New York Jets’ offensive line looked in preseason, our friends at Footballguys.com still have them ranked as the second-best o-line in the NFL. Hard to believe they can just flip a switch and suddenly become the ground-and-pound attack Rex Ryan dreams about, but who knows? The Jets face a strong defensive line in Week 1 when they host the Buffalo Bills, so we’ll find out in a hurry if Footballguys.com knows something we don’t.

10. WE LOVE MONDAY

The coolest thing about Week 1 in the NFL? There are TWO games on Monday night! There is nothing in fantasy more exciting than when your weekly matchup comes down to the Monday night game. With four teams playing this Monday – Bengals at Ravens and Chargers at Raiders – that’s double the chances your fantasy battle will go down to the wire this week. Think about it… it’s entirely possible you can field a lineup that includes Philip Rivers, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, A.J. Green, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Antonio Gates, Sebastian Janikowski and the Ravens defense. Know what that means? You could go into Monday night trailing your opponent 100-0, and you’d still be favored to win. So set your lineup accordingly, plant yourself in front of the TV and – as T.O. would say – get your popcorn ready!

Packers fans unafraid to put Rodgers on Madden cover

Ah, the joys of fan interaction…

In today’s fun-filled media landscape, you can’t go wrong with a top 10 list or a top 50 list or a top 100 list. Or maybe a bracket tournament, perhaps spread out over a few weeks to keep the readers coming back for more. And it clearly doesn’t matter who the so-called “experts” are creating these lists. Then again, who needs experts? Let the fans decide!

EA Sports didn’t get the ball rolling, but it did up the ante last year by letting fans vote for who should be on the cover of Madden ’12. And logic immediately went out the window when the fans voted for Cleveland Browns RB Peyton Hillis, who promptly proved the Madden Curse was not a myth.

This year’s voting for the Madden ’13 cover is down to fourfinalists, and it is a surprisingly representative quartet: Cam Newton, Patrick Willis, Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. 

What’s interesting is that Willis, easily the biggest longshot on this list given that he’s a soft-spoken defensive player, knocked off New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz in last week’s voting to advance to the quarterfinals. Is that a ringing endorsement of the 49ers’ Pro Bowl linebacker, or just a matter of more 49ers fans taking part in the vote?

Neither.

Clearly, this was a case of smart Giants fans protecting their young star from the curse.

The fact that Willis has made it this far might even be the result of fantasy football players wanting to keep any and all offensive stars away from the Madden cover. Willis takes on Newton this week in the semifinals – does anyone really want to see the Panthers’ iconic and entertaining QB suffer? Adding a potential Madden Curse to a potential sophomore slump could be devastating.

Rodgers faces Megatron in the other semifinal matchup – a classic battle between the reigning NFL MVP, Rodgers, whose rabid Packers fan base should be enough to put him over the top, and Johnson, who probably makes the nmost sense to be on the Madden cover.

After all, we’re talking about a guy nicknamed for a cartoon robot. Who better to be the face of a video game? It’s a match made in CG heaven!

Still, he will have a hard time holding off Packers Nation. And the fantasy vote will not be enough to help Willis defeat the popular Newton. I’m predicting it will be Newton vs. Rodgers in the finals, with A-Rod taking home the belt (get it?) and donning the Madden ’13 cover.

Then again, what good are predictions in any kind of fan vote? When NFL.com launched its bracket tournament last month to determine the best team of all time, could anyone have dreamed of a final pitting the 1976 Oakland Raiders against the 2000 Baltimore Ravens? Not even close, but that’s what we got.

Ridiculous? In retrospect, that Raiders team – which narrowly defeated the Ravens in the voting – was pretty damn good. It featured a plethora of Hall of Famers and guys who are still being strongly considered for Canton. But logic wasn’t part of the equation. Raider Nation came out in force and made it happen.

The biggest learning experience here is that the Ravens fan base is far more passionate than we ever imagined. Not only did they get the 2000 Ravens to the finals, but they helped current Ravens RB Ray Rice put up a good showing in the EA Sports vote. Rice actually knocked off the ever-popular Drew Brees in Round 2 of the Madden ’13 vote, and he gave Rodgers all he could handle one round later.

Who knew?

Too bad the Ravens aren’t represented in this new fan voting platform. The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s site is running a bracket tourney in which fans will vote for the best old-time jerseys. Today’s matchup pits the1936 Giants jersey against the 1971 49ers jersey. The Giants jersey is hideous. But guess what? As a Giants fan, I happily cast my vote for it.

Ignorant fan…