NFL Conference Title Games: Cream Rises To The Top

Russell Baxter – a.k.a. @BaxFootballGuru – tweeted this NFL stat last night:

Best regular season W-L record, 2010-12:

New England Patriots        39-9

Atlanta Falcons                   36-12

Green Bay Packers            36-12

Baltimore Ravens               34-14

Pittsburgh Steelers             32-16

New Orleans Saints           31-17

San Francisco 49ers          30-17-1

Interesting. So of the seven teams with the best overall regular-season record over the last three seasons, four of them are playing this weekend in the conference championship games, one lost in the divisional round… and two – the Saints and the Steelers – missed the playoffs entirely.

What does this mean? It indicates the Saints and Steelers had pretty significant dropoffs this season. Neither was a huge surprise, however, seeing as the Saints faced the distraction of Bounty-gate and the Steelers dealt with heavy doses of injury and aging.

The Packers, at least, have a Lombardi Trophy to show for this three-year success. That leaves the four teams playing this Sunday. The Patriots are no strangers to the Super Bowl and were there just a year ago. The Ravens haven’t been there since 2000 and the Falcons and 49ers must go back to the ‘90s for their last trips to the big game.

Which of these four will get to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII? Here’s how it will go down:

49ers at Falcons:

While not spectacular, the Falcons defense has been every bit as solid as the 49ers defense this season. Atlanta has only allowed more than 28 points twice this season and did not allow more than 31 at all. San Francisco allowed more than 31 twice. The star of this game will be Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who will find a way to keep his defense disciplined enough to not get beat by Colin Kaepernick. And if Kaepernick is in check, then Matt Ryan will have little trouble scoring enough points to send the Falcons to the Super Bowl.

The pick: Falcons 23, 49ers 17

Ravens at Patriots:

Is it crazy to think that New England – a team that gave up a gazillion yards a game earlier this season – could actually be the best defense still alive in the postseason? Maybe, but there’s something to it. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has something to do with that; the maturation of young players with talent has something to do with that. And oh, yeah, there’s that Vince Wilfork guy up front. Even if you don’t buy into the improvement of the Patriots defense, you know that Bill Belichick will find a way to neutralize the Ravens’ most dangerous weapon, receiver Torrey Smith. That being the case, and considering you know Tom Brady and the offense will get their share of points, then Ray Rice must have a monster game to keep the Ravens in this thing. Won’t happen.

The pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 20

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

Here are my can’t-miss predictions for the NFL’s divisional playoffs this weekend:

RAVENS AT BRONCOS:

* The Ravens’ big celebration was last week -- didn’t you see it? Ray Lewis and company had a big party in Baltimore after knocking off a team that finished 2-14 last season and had the most rookie starters of any team in the NFL. Can you say, “Letdown?” Sure, there’s enough veteran leadership on the Ravens to avoid a letdown. Mentally. Physically is another story. Don’t expect Lewis and Ed Reed to make a difference here.

* You know how Denver has gone to great lengths the second half of the season to prove to the world that Knowshon Moreno gives the Broncos a viable running attack? The Ravens will be ready for it… which is why the Broncos’ first offensive play Saturday will be a play-action – the Ravens will bite – and Peyton Manning will throw an 80-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas.

Final Score: Broncos 27, Ravens 13

PACKERS AT 49ERS:

* Green Bay hasn’t really had a super-dominant roll this season. Now is a pretty good time to get on it. Aaron Rodgers will have this team in the Super Bowl. Mark it down.

* The Packers defense will surprise everyone and upstage the 49ers defense. (Oh, wait… that’s just crazy wishful thinking on my part because I started the Packers defense last week in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge and I’ll get double points from them this week.)

Final Score: Packers 38, 49ers 21

SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS:

* Okay, the Seahawks didn’t falter last week when they made the dreaded coast-to-coast road trip. Of course, they did get off to a slow start. And it was against the Redskins, a team that was grossly overrated regardless of RGIII’s health status. Now they have a second straight long road trip against an underrated team that has a pretty solid home-field advantage.

* Tony Gonzalez is on a mission, and he will have a monster game.

Final Score: Falcons 24, Seahawks 17

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS:

* I believe in Arian Foster. I don’t believe the Patriots’ run defense will stop him this time.

* The Patriots have been perhaps the ultimate example of “team” over the last 12 years, but look at this game on paper: The Texans have the best running back in this game, the best receiver, the best impact defensive player. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady count for an awful lot, but the Texans won’t be pushovers here.

Final score: Texans 23, Patriots 21

NFL schedule: Piecing together a Thursday night puzzle

By Craig Ellenport

After six years with a half-season of Thursday night games, the NFL awarded its own network a full slate of Thursday games for the first time this year – and it created a giant headache for the folks at 345 Park Avenue charged with creating that schedule. As one of the league’s schedule-makers put it, “They took a really hard problem and made it exponentially harder.”

For the record, this person wasn’t complaining – putting the schedule together is a rewarding challenge. He’s used to hearing complaints from owners about short weeks, long road trips and December games at Lambeau Field. It’s all a learning process, and – let’s face it – there’s no such thing as a bad NFL schedule.

So what makes it so difficult to schedule 13 games for NFL Network’s Thursday night package? Let’s take a look at some of the intricacies of the process…

For starters, the NFL adopted a policy that no team will be forced to play more than one “short week.” That means the six teams scheduled to play on Thanksgiving -- the Texans, Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Patriots and Jets – are all out of the picture. And since this is the first year that NBC will be airing the Thanksgiving night game, that means arguably the best Thursday night matchup of the year – Patriots at Jets – is not on the NFL Network schedule.

That leaves 26 teams to fill 26 spots. And some pretty good teams playing on Thanksgiving that cannot be part of the NFLN package. In fact, it’s the first time since the network began its Thursday night package that the Cowboys are not on the slate.

Another new policy the league implemented after the Competition Committee weighed in: No TNF games in which a team has to travel more than one time zone. If that were in place last year, you wouldn’t have had Jets-Broncos, Eagles-Seahawks or the Harbaugh Bowl, 49ers-Ravens. (Note: This is not a hard-and-fast rule, and so there is one such game this season – Kansas City at San Diego.)

Between the short week and time zone limitations, it’s no wonder that none of the 12 games that NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison cited as the most intriguing matchups of 2012 are on the TNF schedule. Five are multiple time zone trips; six feature teams playing on Thanksgiving. The 12^th game is Green Bay at Chicago, which isn’t a TNF game – but Chicago at Green Bay is on the slate. Which should not be a big surprise given the limitations.

With so few choices to fill out 13 games, there’s really only one way to make them compelling: make them division games. Thus, nine of the 13 NFL Network TNF games are division games. (I heard Mike Mayock say this week that he “can’t wait” for the Cleveland-Baltimore game in Week 4. Okay, sure.)

A couple of other considerations when piecing this puzzle together:

* We’re not saying there aren’t some terrific TNF matchups. Bears-Packers, Giants-Panthers, Broncos-Raiders. Here’s what those games have in common: They are all scheduled for non-bye weeks. Why? Because if you’re going to pull those good matchups off the board for FOX and CBS, networks that are paying billions to air NFL games, then you at least want to give them a full complement of remaining games.

* Of the four non-divisional games, only one can really be considered a clunker: Buccaneers at Vikings in Week 8. Well, that one is going up against the World Series, so it’s essentially a sacrificial lamb.

Then again, would you be surprised if the least anticipated Thursday night NFL game outdrew a World Series game?

If not for Tyree and Manningham, Belichick is the greatest

For starters, let’s get one thing straight. Bill Belichick is a Hall of Fame coach regardless of what you think about the videotaping scandal. And as far as I’m concerned, it does not minimize my view of the man’s coaching ability. He was an integral part of two Super Bowl champions with the New York Giants, he presided over a dynasty with the New England Patriots that won three Super Bowls in four years, and he has kept the Patriots near the top of the NFL for more than a decade. Enough said.

Two painfully close losses to the Giants in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI don’t tarnish any legacy. He is one of just three head coaches (along with Hall of Famers Don Shula and tom Landry) to appear in five Super Bowls. That’s impressive, to say the least.

For those who just don’t like Belichick and point to spygate as a bone of contention to his greatness, Super Bowl XLVI came so close to elevating Belichick to another level.

How cool was it when NFL Films captured Belichick on the sidelines before the Giants’ game-winning drive, imploring his defense to make Eli Manning throw to Mario Manningham?

“This is still a Nicks and Cruz offense,” he shouted. “Make them throw to Manningham.”

Simply put, if Manningham doesn’t make that once-in-a-lifetime grab and keep his feet in-bounds on a perfect Manning pass to start that drive, then Belichick’s genius status is stronger than ever.

It played out just the way he wanted it to. Same as when he had the Giants right where he wanted them in Super Bowl XLII before David Tyree made the greatest play in Super Bowl history.

Think about it. Belichick is two crazy, improbable, unbelievable catches away from being a coach with five Super Bowl titles and a perfect season on his resume. And don’t forget, it’s not like those catches were made by Plaxico Burress or Hakeem Nicks or even Victor Cruz.

Belichick’s status as the unquestioned greatest coach in NFL history is held back by David Tyree and Mario Manningham. That’s almost too ridiculous to comprehend.

But if two unfathomable catches by two unfathomable Super Bowl heroes is all that stands between Belichick and re-naming the Vince Lombardi Trophy after him, then he’s at least earned the right to be in the conversation.