Countdown to Kaepernick injury

Peter King had a note in MMQB a few weeks ago about how Colin Kaepernick was working with a speed trainer during the offseason. This was supposed to strike fear into the hearts of NFL defenses. More likely, defensive coordinators are saying to themselves, “Bring it on.”

Speed wasn’t exactly a weakness for Kaepernick, already one of the fastest quarterbacks in the NFL. He took over the starting gig for the San Francisco 49ers midway through the 2012 season and led them to the Super Bowl by making big plays with both his arm and his feet. He earned a place among the league’s exciting new breed of QB, alongside Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, running the read option and pistol, and whatever else you want to call it.

Problem is, Kaepernick's time would have been better spent studying opposing defenses or working out with his receivers. I’m not saying he didn’t do that, but it should have been a much greater focus than speed training.

Because unless Kaepernick runs out of bounds or scores a touchdown every time he ventures out of the pocket, he will certainly get hit more than the average NFL quarterback. And he WILL get injured this season.

For all of Robert Griffin III’s exciting play as a rookie last season, he didn’t make it all the way through. Close, but not close enough. Kaepernick made it, but he didn’t become the starter in San Francisco until Week 11.

In his seven regular-season starts last year, Kaepernick averaged six rushing attempts per game and overall for the season he finished with 31.9 rushing yards per game. That was good for fourth among quarterbacks. Two of the three QBs who rushed for more yards per game – RGIII and Michael Vick – missed some playing time due to injury. The third was Cam Newton, who’s got 15 pounds on Kaepernick.

Maybe Kaepernick would have been better served building muscle mass during the offseason as opposed to working on his speed.

It will certainly be interesting to see how offenses evolve this season after last year’s success with the read option and pistol. No doubt, defensive coordinators have been working hard throughout the offseason to devise a plan to stop the spread of the passing attacks that have moved rapidly from the college landscape to the pros.

The one thing they know they can do: When the QB is out of the pocket, hit him. New rules that protect ball carriers will not prevent running quarterbacks from being hit hard by linebackers who smell blood.

Will the extra speed make a difference for Kaepernick? At times, absolutely. There will be occasions when his added speed and quickness helps him buy more time – in or out of the pocket – to find an open receiver and make a big play. There will be times when he is forced to scramble and that extra burst helps him elude a defender and make a big run.

Kaepernick is certainly a rising star in the league. And he is a strong passer. The concern isn’t his skill set – it’s his mind set. Great quarterbacks – all great players, for that matter – constantly strive to get better.

Kaepernick is already good but there’s always room for improvement. Alas, speed was not an area he needed to improve upon.

Five final thoughts, including a Super Bowl prediction

Five thoughts as we close out Super Bowl week and get set for the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens to square off in Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans on Sunday (and yes, we have a prediction):

1) The brother of all press conferences. Did you catch the presser Friday morning with Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh? Great move by the NFL to switch up the traditional Friday plan in which the two Super Bowl head coaches hold their final media availabilities in separate pressers at the media center.

Pretty cool, eh? But here’s the thing: Why can’t they do that every year? Think about how cool it would have been last year if Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin were sitting next to each other as they faced the media together. (Or next year, when it will be John Fox and Pete Carroll.) C’mon, NFL, let’s make this happen.

2) Moss ado about nothing. It doesn’t take much to throw NFL writers, bloggers and talking heads into a frenzy. That was never in question, but Randy Moss just hammered it home.

It’s one thing to report on the fact that Moss declared himself the best wide receiver of all-time at Media Day. And it’s okay to take him seriously. But it’s ludicrous to take Moss’ comment and use it to launch into a lengthy statistic and analytical breakdown on the subject.

While Moss might very well be the second-best receiver of all time (because he is), he’s not worthy of Jerry Rice. Simple. Done. So many great stories and angles were either overshadowed or just ignored in favor of piling on the Moss remarks. What a waste.

3) Social misfits. I’ve always enjoyed following my old friends from the NFL media world on Twitter, but this week has been tough. More than gaining solid insight into the game, this week’s Twitter experience has been all about seeing and hearing who is dining at what famous N’Awlins establishment or gallivanting down Bourbon Street. Am I jealous? Yes, I am. I’m also intrigued about what Twitter will have in store for us next year, when the Super Bowl comes to the New York area. With so many varied opportunities in Manhattan, I fully expect more interesting food choices, celebrity sightings and questionable nightlife decisions to be broadcast via Twiiter next year.

4) Most underplayed stat. Between the Harbaughs, Ray Lewis, Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco, there wasn’t much room to focus on lower-profile players who could make a big impact in this game, but the one player we oughta keep an eye on Sunday is Jacoby Jones. The Ravens led the NFL with an average of 27.3 yards per kickoff return. Jones averaged 30.7 yards per return and scored twice. And considering the fact that John Harbaugh was a special teams coordinator before taking the job as Ravens head coach, it’s fair to think this game could be decided on special teams.

5) And the winner is… When the Super Bowl matchup was set two weeks ago, I felt the 49ers would be solid pick. I started to hedge earlier this week and now I’m solidly picking the Ravens. Here are the reasons why:

• Colin Kaepernick is and will continue to be an exciting and successful NFL quarterback. But still, this is just his 10^th career start – and the first time anyone has had two weeks to prepare for him. The Ravens defense is not the dominant force it once was, but I expect them to capitalize on facing a relatively inexperienced QB. There will be turnovers, and I anticipate at least one defensive touchdown for Baltimore.

• It’s not so much that the Ravens are a team of destiny; it’s that the Ravens players believe they are a team of destiny.

• Groan if you want about this one, but it’s legit: The 49ers are 5-0 in the Super Bowl. Simply put: They are due for a loss.

The pick: Ravens 24, 49ers 14

Super Bowl memories: Phil Simms, Janet Jackson and the streaker

Am I the only one who feels old when I hear that Phil Simms will be calling his seventh Super Bowl this Sunday? Wasn’t it just yesterday that Simms was pitching his perfect game masterpiece for the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXI?

Okay, well I guess that was 26 years ago. And now, perhaps, there are young fans who don’t even think of Simms as a former NFL quarterback, the same fans who didn’t realize that John Madden used to be a coach. After all, when Simms broadcasts Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans Sunday between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, only Madden (with eight) will have been the color man for more Super Bowls than Simms.

“I can’t believe I’ve done seven,” Simms said at a recent CBS Sports press event. “Of course I’m proud of it. And I’ve always said, ‘Sooner or later I wanna come out of one and be happy.’ … Broadcasting is a lot like playing in those terms. You go to bed and all you think about is the things you wish you’d have done.”

For the record, Simms called Super Bowls XXX and XXXII for NBC, then XXXV, XXXVIII, XLI and XLIV for CBS. Plenty of big moments from those games – John Elway’s first title, Tom Brady’s second, Peyton Manning, the Saints’ onside kick – but what’s the first thing Simms thinks about when he looks back at the big games he’s called?

“My most memorable moment probably is a bad one,” Simms said. “It’s the Janet Jackson thing.”

Ah, yes, Nipple-gate. Super Bowl XXXVIII halftime. Simms explained that he didn’t see it when it happened. But as he and Greg Gumbel made their way back to the booth before the start of the second half, he knew something was up.

“Before halftime was over, we had tons of executives running into our booth yelling, ‘Give us a replay!’ We had no idea.”

When Simms learned what the fuss was about, he shook his head in disbelief – not so much about what had happened as for the frenzy that followed. Simms had a job to do – call the second half of the Super Bowl. The Patriots held a 14-10 halftime lead over the Panthers, and a wild finish was about to ensue.

However, there was one more memorable Super Bowl moment that was unfolding. Players and coaches were pouring back onto the field for the second half when Simms noticed something odd.

“I just remember seeing the guy in the officials uniform. I saw him on the far sideline and wondered what he was doing there… because he looked funny.”

Indeed, it wasn’t an official. It was an imposter.

“He was the guy that got naked and ran onto the field,” Simms laughed.

Mark Roberts, a British streaker who has crashed several major events, probably would have received more notoriety for his Super Bowl stunt if not for the Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction. Still, it was a big deal.

“So I spotted him first," Simms said. "I’m not proud of that, but I saw him.”

So Simms missed the nipple during halftime, but he got the Full Monty just a few minutes later.

NFL Conference Title Games: Cream Rises To The Top

Russell Baxter – a.k.a. @BaxFootballGuru – tweeted this NFL stat last night:

Best regular season W-L record, 2010-12:

New England Patriots        39-9

Atlanta Falcons                   36-12

Green Bay Packers            36-12

Baltimore Ravens               34-14

Pittsburgh Steelers             32-16

New Orleans Saints           31-17

San Francisco 49ers          30-17-1

Interesting. So of the seven teams with the best overall regular-season record over the last three seasons, four of them are playing this weekend in the conference championship games, one lost in the divisional round… and two – the Saints and the Steelers – missed the playoffs entirely.

What does this mean? It indicates the Saints and Steelers had pretty significant dropoffs this season. Neither was a huge surprise, however, seeing as the Saints faced the distraction of Bounty-gate and the Steelers dealt with heavy doses of injury and aging.

The Packers, at least, have a Lombardi Trophy to show for this three-year success. That leaves the four teams playing this Sunday. The Patriots are no strangers to the Super Bowl and were there just a year ago. The Ravens haven’t been there since 2000 and the Falcons and 49ers must go back to the ‘90s for their last trips to the big game.

Which of these four will get to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII? Here’s how it will go down:

49ers at Falcons:

While not spectacular, the Falcons defense has been every bit as solid as the 49ers defense this season. Atlanta has only allowed more than 28 points twice this season and did not allow more than 31 at all. San Francisco allowed more than 31 twice. The star of this game will be Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who will find a way to keep his defense disciplined enough to not get beat by Colin Kaepernick. And if Kaepernick is in check, then Matt Ryan will have little trouble scoring enough points to send the Falcons to the Super Bowl.

The pick: Falcons 23, 49ers 17

Ravens at Patriots:

Is it crazy to think that New England – a team that gave up a gazillion yards a game earlier this season – could actually be the best defense still alive in the postseason? Maybe, but there’s something to it. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has something to do with that; the maturation of young players with talent has something to do with that. And oh, yeah, there’s that Vince Wilfork guy up front. Even if you don’t buy into the improvement of the Patriots defense, you know that Bill Belichick will find a way to neutralize the Ravens’ most dangerous weapon, receiver Torrey Smith. That being the case, and considering you know Tom Brady and the offense will get their share of points, then Ray Rice must have a monster game to keep the Ravens in this thing. Won’t happen.

The pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 20

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

Here are my can’t-miss predictions for the NFL’s divisional playoffs this weekend:

RAVENS AT BRONCOS:

* The Ravens’ big celebration was last week -- didn’t you see it? Ray Lewis and company had a big party in Baltimore after knocking off a team that finished 2-14 last season and had the most rookie starters of any team in the NFL. Can you say, “Letdown?” Sure, there’s enough veteran leadership on the Ravens to avoid a letdown. Mentally. Physically is another story. Don’t expect Lewis and Ed Reed to make a difference here.

* You know how Denver has gone to great lengths the second half of the season to prove to the world that Knowshon Moreno gives the Broncos a viable running attack? The Ravens will be ready for it… which is why the Broncos’ first offensive play Saturday will be a play-action – the Ravens will bite – and Peyton Manning will throw an 80-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas.

Final Score: Broncos 27, Ravens 13

PACKERS AT 49ERS:

* Green Bay hasn’t really had a super-dominant roll this season. Now is a pretty good time to get on it. Aaron Rodgers will have this team in the Super Bowl. Mark it down.

* The Packers defense will surprise everyone and upstage the 49ers defense. (Oh, wait… that’s just crazy wishful thinking on my part because I started the Packers defense last week in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge and I’ll get double points from them this week.)

Final Score: Packers 38, 49ers 21

SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS:

* Okay, the Seahawks didn’t falter last week when they made the dreaded coast-to-coast road trip. Of course, they did get off to a slow start. And it was against the Redskins, a team that was grossly overrated regardless of RGIII’s health status. Now they have a second straight long road trip against an underrated team that has a pretty solid home-field advantage.

* Tony Gonzalez is on a mission, and he will have a monster game.

Final Score: Falcons 24, Seahawks 17

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS:

* I believe in Arian Foster. I don’t believe the Patriots’ run defense will stop him this time.

* The Patriots have been perhaps the ultimate example of “team” over the last 12 years, but look at this game on paper: The Texans have the best running back in this game, the best receiver, the best impact defensive player. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady count for an awful lot, but the Texans won’t be pushovers here.

Final score: Texans 23, Patriots 21

NFL schedule: Piecing together a Thursday night puzzle

By Craig Ellenport

After six years with a half-season of Thursday night games, the NFL awarded its own network a full slate of Thursday games for the first time this year – and it created a giant headache for the folks at 345 Park Avenue charged with creating that schedule. As one of the league’s schedule-makers put it, “They took a really hard problem and made it exponentially harder.”

For the record, this person wasn’t complaining – putting the schedule together is a rewarding challenge. He’s used to hearing complaints from owners about short weeks, long road trips and December games at Lambeau Field. It’s all a learning process, and – let’s face it – there’s no such thing as a bad NFL schedule.

So what makes it so difficult to schedule 13 games for NFL Network’s Thursday night package? Let’s take a look at some of the intricacies of the process…

For starters, the NFL adopted a policy that no team will be forced to play more than one “short week.” That means the six teams scheduled to play on Thanksgiving -- the Texans, Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Patriots and Jets – are all out of the picture. And since this is the first year that NBC will be airing the Thanksgiving night game, that means arguably the best Thursday night matchup of the year – Patriots at Jets – is not on the NFL Network schedule.

That leaves 26 teams to fill 26 spots. And some pretty good teams playing on Thanksgiving that cannot be part of the NFLN package. In fact, it’s the first time since the network began its Thursday night package that the Cowboys are not on the slate.

Another new policy the league implemented after the Competition Committee weighed in: No TNF games in which a team has to travel more than one time zone. If that were in place last year, you wouldn’t have had Jets-Broncos, Eagles-Seahawks or the Harbaugh Bowl, 49ers-Ravens. (Note: This is not a hard-and-fast rule, and so there is one such game this season – Kansas City at San Diego.)

Between the short week and time zone limitations, it’s no wonder that none of the 12 games that NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison cited as the most intriguing matchups of 2012 are on the TNF schedule. Five are multiple time zone trips; six feature teams playing on Thanksgiving. The 12^th game is Green Bay at Chicago, which isn’t a TNF game – but Chicago at Green Bay is on the slate. Which should not be a big surprise given the limitations.

With so few choices to fill out 13 games, there’s really only one way to make them compelling: make them division games. Thus, nine of the 13 NFL Network TNF games are division games. (I heard Mike Mayock say this week that he “can’t wait” for the Cleveland-Baltimore game in Week 4. Okay, sure.)

A couple of other considerations when piecing this puzzle together:

* We’re not saying there aren’t some terrific TNF matchups. Bears-Packers, Giants-Panthers, Broncos-Raiders. Here’s what those games have in common: They are all scheduled for non-bye weeks. Why? Because if you’re going to pull those good matchups off the board for FOX and CBS, networks that are paying billions to air NFL games, then you at least want to give them a full complement of remaining games.

* Of the four non-divisional games, only one can really be considered a clunker: Buccaneers at Vikings in Week 8. Well, that one is going up against the World Series, so it’s essentially a sacrificial lamb.

Then again, would you be surprised if the least anticipated Thursday night NFL game outdrew a World Series game?

Quick thoughts on the Manning news

Five quick thoughts on the news today that Peyton Manning will be a Bronco:

• If you think a Denver Broncos team led by Peyton Manning -- even if he's not at 100 percent -- isn't dangerous, just consider this: John Fox got the Carolina Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, and then he led the Broncos to an AFC West title last year with Tim Tebow. I think it's safe to put a Manning-led Broncos team in the title hunt.

• Is Alex Smith really insulted that the 49ers would have preferred Manning over him? I'm guessing that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will make it clear to Smith that his pursuit of Manning had nothing to do with Smith and everything to do with trying to sign a future Hall of Famer with gas in the tank. If Smith doesn't understand that he's just a few notches below Manning, then he's delusional. And money aside, would he rather play for a staggering Dolphins squad than return to the cream of the NFC West? That's the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

• Speaking of the Dolphins... Given owner Steve Ross' desire for star power in Miami, Tebow to the Dolphins a no-brainer.

• It was just a few months ago the Oakland Raiders might have been considered the most talented team in the AFC West. They still have the best kicking game, but does anyone think they won't finish in last place?

• I'm still depressed that we won't get to enjoy a season of Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald together in Arizona. Sorry, Peyton, but you missed the boat here. That would have been more awesome than anything you do in Denver. Unless, of course, you win the Super Bowl.