NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

Here are my can’t-miss predictions for the NFL’s divisional playoffs this weekend:

RAVENS AT BRONCOS:

* The Ravens’ big celebration was last week -- didn’t you see it? Ray Lewis and company had a big party in Baltimore after knocking off a team that finished 2-14 last season and had the most rookie starters of any team in the NFL. Can you say, “Letdown?” Sure, there’s enough veteran leadership on the Ravens to avoid a letdown. Mentally. Physically is another story. Don’t expect Lewis and Ed Reed to make a difference here.

* You know how Denver has gone to great lengths the second half of the season to prove to the world that Knowshon Moreno gives the Broncos a viable running attack? The Ravens will be ready for it… which is why the Broncos’ first offensive play Saturday will be a play-action – the Ravens will bite – and Peyton Manning will throw an 80-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas.

Final Score: Broncos 27, Ravens 13

PACKERS AT 49ERS:

* Green Bay hasn’t really had a super-dominant roll this season. Now is a pretty good time to get on it. Aaron Rodgers will have this team in the Super Bowl. Mark it down.

* The Packers defense will surprise everyone and upstage the 49ers defense. (Oh, wait… that’s just crazy wishful thinking on my part because I started the Packers defense last week in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge and I’ll get double points from them this week.)

Final Score: Packers 38, 49ers 21

SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS:

* Okay, the Seahawks didn’t falter last week when they made the dreaded coast-to-coast road trip. Of course, they did get off to a slow start. And it was against the Redskins, a team that was grossly overrated regardless of RGIII’s health status. Now they have a second straight long road trip against an underrated team that has a pretty solid home-field advantage.

* Tony Gonzalez is on a mission, and he will have a monster game.

Final Score: Falcons 24, Seahawks 17

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS:

* I believe in Arian Foster. I don’t believe the Patriots’ run defense will stop him this time.

* The Patriots have been perhaps the ultimate example of “team” over the last 12 years, but look at this game on paper: The Texans have the best running back in this game, the best receiver, the best impact defensive player. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady count for an awful lot, but the Texans won’t be pushovers here.

Final score: Texans 23, Patriots 21

NFL schedule: Piecing together a Thursday night puzzle

By Craig Ellenport

After six years with a half-season of Thursday night games, the NFL awarded its own network a full slate of Thursday games for the first time this year – and it created a giant headache for the folks at 345 Park Avenue charged with creating that schedule. As one of the league’s schedule-makers put it, “They took a really hard problem and made it exponentially harder.”

For the record, this person wasn’t complaining – putting the schedule together is a rewarding challenge. He’s used to hearing complaints from owners about short weeks, long road trips and December games at Lambeau Field. It’s all a learning process, and – let’s face it – there’s no such thing as a bad NFL schedule.

So what makes it so difficult to schedule 13 games for NFL Network’s Thursday night package? Let’s take a look at some of the intricacies of the process…

For starters, the NFL adopted a policy that no team will be forced to play more than one “short week.” That means the six teams scheduled to play on Thanksgiving -- the Texans, Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Patriots and Jets – are all out of the picture. And since this is the first year that NBC will be airing the Thanksgiving night game, that means arguably the best Thursday night matchup of the year – Patriots at Jets – is not on the NFL Network schedule.

That leaves 26 teams to fill 26 spots. And some pretty good teams playing on Thanksgiving that cannot be part of the NFLN package. In fact, it’s the first time since the network began its Thursday night package that the Cowboys are not on the slate.

Another new policy the league implemented after the Competition Committee weighed in: No TNF games in which a team has to travel more than one time zone. If that were in place last year, you wouldn’t have had Jets-Broncos, Eagles-Seahawks or the Harbaugh Bowl, 49ers-Ravens. (Note: This is not a hard-and-fast rule, and so there is one such game this season – Kansas City at San Diego.)

Between the short week and time zone limitations, it’s no wonder that none of the 12 games that NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison cited as the most intriguing matchups of 2012 are on the TNF schedule. Five are multiple time zone trips; six feature teams playing on Thanksgiving. The 12^th game is Green Bay at Chicago, which isn’t a TNF game – but Chicago at Green Bay is on the slate. Which should not be a big surprise given the limitations.

With so few choices to fill out 13 games, there’s really only one way to make them compelling: make them division games. Thus, nine of the 13 NFL Network TNF games are division games. (I heard Mike Mayock say this week that he “can’t wait” for the Cleveland-Baltimore game in Week 4. Okay, sure.)

A couple of other considerations when piecing this puzzle together:

* We’re not saying there aren’t some terrific TNF matchups. Bears-Packers, Giants-Panthers, Broncos-Raiders. Here’s what those games have in common: They are all scheduled for non-bye weeks. Why? Because if you’re going to pull those good matchups off the board for FOX and CBS, networks that are paying billions to air NFL games, then you at least want to give them a full complement of remaining games.

* Of the four non-divisional games, only one can really be considered a clunker: Buccaneers at Vikings in Week 8. Well, that one is going up against the World Series, so it’s essentially a sacrificial lamb.

Then again, would you be surprised if the least anticipated Thursday night NFL game outdrew a World Series game?