NFL Conference Title Games: Cream Rises To The Top

Russell Baxter – a.k.a. @BaxFootballGuru – tweeted this NFL stat last night:

Best regular season W-L record, 2010-12:

New England Patriots        39-9

Atlanta Falcons                   36-12

Green Bay Packers            36-12

Baltimore Ravens               34-14

Pittsburgh Steelers             32-16

New Orleans Saints           31-17

San Francisco 49ers          30-17-1

Interesting. So of the seven teams with the best overall regular-season record over the last three seasons, four of them are playing this weekend in the conference championship games, one lost in the divisional round… and two – the Saints and the Steelers – missed the playoffs entirely.

What does this mean? It indicates the Saints and Steelers had pretty significant dropoffs this season. Neither was a huge surprise, however, seeing as the Saints faced the distraction of Bounty-gate and the Steelers dealt with heavy doses of injury and aging.

The Packers, at least, have a Lombardi Trophy to show for this three-year success. That leaves the four teams playing this Sunday. The Patriots are no strangers to the Super Bowl and were there just a year ago. The Ravens haven’t been there since 2000 and the Falcons and 49ers must go back to the ‘90s for their last trips to the big game.

Which of these four will get to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII? Here’s how it will go down:

49ers at Falcons:

While not spectacular, the Falcons defense has been every bit as solid as the 49ers defense this season. Atlanta has only allowed more than 28 points twice this season and did not allow more than 31 at all. San Francisco allowed more than 31 twice. The star of this game will be Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who will find a way to keep his defense disciplined enough to not get beat by Colin Kaepernick. And if Kaepernick is in check, then Matt Ryan will have little trouble scoring enough points to send the Falcons to the Super Bowl.

The pick: Falcons 23, 49ers 17

Ravens at Patriots:

Is it crazy to think that New England – a team that gave up a gazillion yards a game earlier this season – could actually be the best defense still alive in the postseason? Maybe, but there’s something to it. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has something to do with that; the maturation of young players with talent has something to do with that. And oh, yeah, there’s that Vince Wilfork guy up front. Even if you don’t buy into the improvement of the Patriots defense, you know that Bill Belichick will find a way to neutralize the Ravens’ most dangerous weapon, receiver Torrey Smith. That being the case, and considering you know Tom Brady and the offense will get their share of points, then Ray Rice must have a monster game to keep the Ravens in this thing. Won’t happen.

The pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 20

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

Here are my can’t-miss predictions for the NFL’s divisional playoffs this weekend:

RAVENS AT BRONCOS:

* The Ravens’ big celebration was last week -- didn’t you see it? Ray Lewis and company had a big party in Baltimore after knocking off a team that finished 2-14 last season and had the most rookie starters of any team in the NFL. Can you say, “Letdown?” Sure, there’s enough veteran leadership on the Ravens to avoid a letdown. Mentally. Physically is another story. Don’t expect Lewis and Ed Reed to make a difference here.

* You know how Denver has gone to great lengths the second half of the season to prove to the world that Knowshon Moreno gives the Broncos a viable running attack? The Ravens will be ready for it… which is why the Broncos’ first offensive play Saturday will be a play-action – the Ravens will bite – and Peyton Manning will throw an 80-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas.

Final Score: Broncos 27, Ravens 13

PACKERS AT 49ERS:

* Green Bay hasn’t really had a super-dominant roll this season. Now is a pretty good time to get on it. Aaron Rodgers will have this team in the Super Bowl. Mark it down.

* The Packers defense will surprise everyone and upstage the 49ers defense. (Oh, wait… that’s just crazy wishful thinking on my part because I started the Packers defense last week in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge and I’ll get double points from them this week.)

Final Score: Packers 38, 49ers 21

SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS:

* Okay, the Seahawks didn’t falter last week when they made the dreaded coast-to-coast road trip. Of course, they did get off to a slow start. And it was against the Redskins, a team that was grossly overrated regardless of RGIII’s health status. Now they have a second straight long road trip against an underrated team that has a pretty solid home-field advantage.

* Tony Gonzalez is on a mission, and he will have a monster game.

Final Score: Falcons 24, Seahawks 17

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS:

* I believe in Arian Foster. I don’t believe the Patriots’ run defense will stop him this time.

* The Patriots have been perhaps the ultimate example of “team” over the last 12 years, but look at this game on paper: The Texans have the best running back in this game, the best receiver, the best impact defensive player. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady count for an awful lot, but the Texans won’t be pushovers here.

Final score: Texans 23, Patriots 21