This week's ultimate fantasy sleeper

How's this for a ballsy pick in daily fantasy football: Seahawks backup RB Robert Turbin gets the start!

Why not? In my weekly "Value Picks" article for DFSEdge.com, I undertake the following exercise: Build a roster each week that includes the most expensive QB, RB, WR and TE ... and then try to fill in the rest of my roster with underpriced guys so I'm still under the salary cap.

Of course, that means my lineup includes Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham and either Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning every single week. I can live with that.

Depending on the daily site being used, there are different combinations of rosters. I prefer sites like FantasyAces.com, since they have spots for two quarterbacks. So after you splurge on the highest-priced guy, you can still find a nice value pick to select.

Anyway, after doing pretty well last week by picking Dolphins RB Lamar Miller (who had 10 carries for 3 yards the previous week), I decided to really push the envelope in Week 3 -- taking a chance that Seattle will give backup RB Robert Turbin a good chunk of action this week against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars.

Here's the line of thinking: Marshawn Lynch was a true beast last week, carrying the ball 28 times against the physical 49ers defense in a divisional grudge match on national TV. Next week, the Seahawks travel to Houston for a marquee matchup -- Super Bowl preview? -- against the Texans.

So a home game against the worst team in the NFL is a perfect opportunity to give Lynch a breather and let Turbin -- who had six carries for 30 yards himself last week -- have a chance to shine.

Makes perfect sense, doesn't it? Sure, it's a little risky, but I love the potential here.

For all my value picks this week, check out my DFSEdge.com article.

Top draft pick to Hall of Fame? Not in the '90s

Interesting note courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s web site, listing the 13 members of the Hall who were first overall draft picks. Did you think that number would be higher? Let’s take a closer look.

From 1960-1989, the first overall pick produced exactly three Hall of Famers per decade. That meant that the teams picking first overall in those 30 years had a 30 percent chance of landing a future Hall of Famer. Any GM would take those odds, right?

It’s the dreaded ‘90s that water down the numbers. As of now, there are zero top picks from the ‘90s in Canton. That will change as soon as Peyton Manning (1998) becomes eligible. And eventually, 1997 top pick Orlando Pace might give the ‘90s two No. 1 Hall of Famers. After that, however, none of the remaining eight top picks is even close to consideration.

There’s still plenty of history to be written for the top picks of the 2000s, but the first 10 years of this century don’t look much better than the ‘90s in terms of first overall picks. Two Super Bowl MVPs for Eli Manning (2004) put him in the mix. The jury is still way out there on Michael Vick, Mario Williams and Matt Stafford, but that’s about it.

Interestingly, while there have been 13 No. 1 picks to reach the Hall, a total of 12 Hall of Famers were No. 2 overall picks. The most recent was Marshall Faulk (1994) and there are two more that have a decent shot (Julius Peppers, 2002, and Calvin Johnson, 2007).

Look, picking at the top of the draft by no means guarantees you a Hall of Fame player. The problem is not missing out on a superstar; it’s passing on a superstar in favor of a bust. And when you look at this list of the top two picks since 1990, you find more busts than winners. Forget about Hall of Fame… Pro Bowl would be nice.

Year	No. 1 Pick	No. 2 Pick
1990	Jeff George	Blair Thomas
1991	Russell Maryland	Eric Turner
1992	Steve Emtman	Quentin Coryatt
1993	Drew Bledsoe	Rick Mirer
1994	Dan Wilkinson	Marshall Faulk
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Tony Boselli
1996	Keyshwn Johnson	Kevin Hardy
1997	Orlando Pace	Darrell Russell
1998	Peyton Manning	Ryan Leaf
1999	Tim Couch	Donovan McNabb
2000	Courtney Brown	LaVar Arrington
2001	Michael Vick	Leonard Davis
2002	David Carr	Julius Peppers
2003	Carson Palmer	Charles Rogers
2004	Eli Manning	Robert Gallery
2005	Alex Smith	Ronnie Brown
2006	Mario Williams	Reggie Bush
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Calvin Johnson
2008	Jake Long	Chris Long
2009	Matt Stafford	Jason Smith
2010	Sam Bradford	Ndamukong Suh
2011	Cam Newton	Von Miller

Quick thoughts on the Manning news

Five quick thoughts on the news today that Peyton Manning will be a Bronco:

• If you think a Denver Broncos team led by Peyton Manning -- even if he's not at 100 percent -- isn't dangerous, just consider this: John Fox got the Carolina Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, and then he led the Broncos to an AFC West title last year with Tim Tebow. I think it's safe to put a Manning-led Broncos team in the title hunt.

• Is Alex Smith really insulted that the 49ers would have preferred Manning over him? I'm guessing that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will make it clear to Smith that his pursuit of Manning had nothing to do with Smith and everything to do with trying to sign a future Hall of Famer with gas in the tank. If Smith doesn't understand that he's just a few notches below Manning, then he's delusional. And money aside, would he rather play for a staggering Dolphins squad than return to the cream of the NFC West? That's the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

• Speaking of the Dolphins... Given owner Steve Ross' desire for star power in Miami, Tebow to the Dolphins a no-brainer.

• It was just a few months ago the Oakland Raiders might have been considered the most talented team in the AFC West. They still have the best kicking game, but does anyone think they won't finish in last place?

• I'm still depressed that we won't get to enjoy a season of Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald together in Arizona. Sorry, Peyton, but you missed the boat here. That would have been more awesome than anything you do in Denver. Unless, of course, you win the Super Bowl.

Peyton paired with Fitz would be legendary

If you’re a fan of pro football, how can you not root for Peyton Manning to sign with the Arizona Cardinals?

The prospect of Manning throwing to Larry Fitzgerald is delicious. Simply put, Manning-to-Fitzgerald has the potential to be the best passing tandem in NFL history.

Think about it. Manning had some outstanding seasons with Marvin Harrison, but who would you rather have in his prime, Harrison or Fitzgerald? Harrison is in the mix with a slew of potential Hall of Fame candidate receivers; Fitzgerald is above those guys. If Manning is healthy and can return to form, the connection with Fitzgerald would be unstoppable.

We already know the likes of Dan Marino, John Elway and Brett Favre never had a receiver as dynamic as Fitzgerald in their arsenals. Jim Kelly had Andre Reed, but he’s a notch below Fitzgerald.

The last time a future Hall of Fame QB and a future Hall of Fame WR teamed up? Well, that would be Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner, who was Arizona’s full-time starter from 2007-09. Here are Fitzgerald’s numbers for those three seasons:

293 receptions, 3,932 yards, 35 touchdowns

And that doesn’t include the record-shattering postseason numbers he notched during the Cardinals’ 2008 run to the Super Bowl.

And, oh yeah, there was another future Hall of Fame tandem in 2007, and their numbers speak for themselves. In 2007, Tom Brady passed for 4,807 yards and 50 touchdowns, with Randy Moss accounting for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns. The touchdown totals for both are single-season NFL records.

As far as players already enshrined in Canton, there are 10 modern-era QB/WR combinations in the Hall of Fame. As you go down this list, consider which of these dynamic duos would be more frightening to opposing defenses than Manning/Fitzgerald. Maybe one or two:

• Johnny Unitas and Raymond Berry
• Joe Namath and Don Maynard
• Bob Griese and Paul Warfield
• Terry Bradshaw and Lynn Swann
• Terry Bradshaw and John Stallworth
• Dan Fouts and Charlie Joiner
• Joe Montana and Jerry Rice
• Steve Young and Jerry Rice
• Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin 

Fitzgerald caught 80 passes for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns last season – with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton throwing him the football.

Of course, a healthy Manning will make any receiver look good wherever he goes. If he goes to Miami and Brandon Marshall remains focused, that pairing could be monstrous. If he goes to Denver, maybe Demaryius Thomas becomes a Pro Bowl receiver.

But if Peyton Manning goes to Arizona and is ready to play, then he and Larry Fitzgerald will be electric. All season long. It will be must-see football, and long-suffering Cardinals fans won’t be the only ones enjoying the show.

 Come on, Peyton. This needs to happen.