This week's ultimate fantasy sleeper

How's this for a ballsy pick in daily fantasy football: Seahawks backup RB Robert Turbin gets the start!

Why not? In my weekly "Value Picks" article for DFSEdge.com, I undertake the following exercise: Build a roster each week that includes the most expensive QB, RB, WR and TE ... and then try to fill in the rest of my roster with underpriced guys so I'm still under the salary cap.

Of course, that means my lineup includes Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham and either Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning every single week. I can live with that.

Depending on the daily site being used, there are different combinations of rosters. I prefer sites like FantasyAces.com, since they have spots for two quarterbacks. So after you splurge on the highest-priced guy, you can still find a nice value pick to select.

Anyway, after doing pretty well last week by picking Dolphins RB Lamar Miller (who had 10 carries for 3 yards the previous week), I decided to really push the envelope in Week 3 -- taking a chance that Seattle will give backup RB Robert Turbin a good chunk of action this week against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars.

Here's the line of thinking: Marshawn Lynch was a true beast last week, carrying the ball 28 times against the physical 49ers defense in a divisional grudge match on national TV. Next week, the Seahawks travel to Houston for a marquee matchup -- Super Bowl preview? -- against the Texans.

So a home game against the worst team in the NFL is a perfect opportunity to give Lynch a breather and let Turbin -- who had six carries for 30 yards himself last week -- have a chance to shine.

Makes perfect sense, doesn't it? Sure, it's a little risky, but I love the potential here.

For all my value picks this week, check out my DFSEdge.com article.

Packers fans unafraid to put Rodgers on Madden cover

Ah, the joys of fan interaction…

In today’s fun-filled media landscape, you can’t go wrong with a top 10 list or a top 50 list or a top 100 list. Or maybe a bracket tournament, perhaps spread out over a few weeks to keep the readers coming back for more. And it clearly doesn’t matter who the so-called “experts” are creating these lists. Then again, who needs experts? Let the fans decide!

EA Sports didn’t get the ball rolling, but it did up the ante last year by letting fans vote for who should be on the cover of Madden ’12. And logic immediately went out the window when the fans voted for Cleveland Browns RB Peyton Hillis, who promptly proved the Madden Curse was not a myth.

This year’s voting for the Madden ’13 cover is down to fourfinalists, and it is a surprisingly representative quartet: Cam Newton, Patrick Willis, Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. 

What’s interesting is that Willis, easily the biggest longshot on this list given that he’s a soft-spoken defensive player, knocked off New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz in last week’s voting to advance to the quarterfinals. Is that a ringing endorsement of the 49ers’ Pro Bowl linebacker, or just a matter of more 49ers fans taking part in the vote?

Neither.

Clearly, this was a case of smart Giants fans protecting their young star from the curse.

The fact that Willis has made it this far might even be the result of fantasy football players wanting to keep any and all offensive stars away from the Madden cover. Willis takes on Newton this week in the semifinals – does anyone really want to see the Panthers’ iconic and entertaining QB suffer? Adding a potential Madden Curse to a potential sophomore slump could be devastating.

Rodgers faces Megatron in the other semifinal matchup – a classic battle between the reigning NFL MVP, Rodgers, whose rabid Packers fan base should be enough to put him over the top, and Johnson, who probably makes the nmost sense to be on the Madden cover.

After all, we’re talking about a guy nicknamed for a cartoon robot. Who better to be the face of a video game? It’s a match made in CG heaven!

Still, he will have a hard time holding off Packers Nation. And the fantasy vote will not be enough to help Willis defeat the popular Newton. I’m predicting it will be Newton vs. Rodgers in the finals, with A-Rod taking home the belt (get it?) and donning the Madden ’13 cover.

Then again, what good are predictions in any kind of fan vote? When NFL.com launched its bracket tournament last month to determine the best team of all time, could anyone have dreamed of a final pitting the 1976 Oakland Raiders against the 2000 Baltimore Ravens? Not even close, but that’s what we got.

Ridiculous? In retrospect, that Raiders team – which narrowly defeated the Ravens in the voting – was pretty damn good. It featured a plethora of Hall of Famers and guys who are still being strongly considered for Canton. But logic wasn’t part of the equation. Raider Nation came out in force and made it happen.

The biggest learning experience here is that the Ravens fan base is far more passionate than we ever imagined. Not only did they get the 2000 Ravens to the finals, but they helped current Ravens RB Ray Rice put up a good showing in the EA Sports vote. Rice actually knocked off the ever-popular Drew Brees in Round 2 of the Madden ’13 vote, and he gave Rodgers all he could handle one round later.

Who knew?

Too bad the Ravens aren’t represented in this new fan voting platform. The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s site is running a bracket tourney in which fans will vote for the best old-time jerseys. Today’s matchup pits the1936 Giants jersey against the 1971 49ers jersey. The Giants jersey is hideous. But guess what? As a Giants fan, I happily cast my vote for it.

Ignorant fan…

Top draft pick to Hall of Fame? Not in the '90s

Interesting note courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s web site, listing the 13 members of the Hall who were first overall draft picks. Did you think that number would be higher? Let’s take a closer look.

From 1960-1989, the first overall pick produced exactly three Hall of Famers per decade. That meant that the teams picking first overall in those 30 years had a 30 percent chance of landing a future Hall of Famer. Any GM would take those odds, right?

It’s the dreaded ‘90s that water down the numbers. As of now, there are zero top picks from the ‘90s in Canton. That will change as soon as Peyton Manning (1998) becomes eligible. And eventually, 1997 top pick Orlando Pace might give the ‘90s two No. 1 Hall of Famers. After that, however, none of the remaining eight top picks is even close to consideration.

There’s still plenty of history to be written for the top picks of the 2000s, but the first 10 years of this century don’t look much better than the ‘90s in terms of first overall picks. Two Super Bowl MVPs for Eli Manning (2004) put him in the mix. The jury is still way out there on Michael Vick, Mario Williams and Matt Stafford, but that’s about it.

Interestingly, while there have been 13 No. 1 picks to reach the Hall, a total of 12 Hall of Famers were No. 2 overall picks. The most recent was Marshall Faulk (1994) and there are two more that have a decent shot (Julius Peppers, 2002, and Calvin Johnson, 2007).

Look, picking at the top of the draft by no means guarantees you a Hall of Fame player. The problem is not missing out on a superstar; it’s passing on a superstar in favor of a bust. And when you look at this list of the top two picks since 1990, you find more busts than winners. Forget about Hall of Fame… Pro Bowl would be nice.

Year	No. 1 Pick	No. 2 Pick
1990	Jeff George	Blair Thomas
1991	Russell Maryland	Eric Turner
1992	Steve Emtman	Quentin Coryatt
1993	Drew Bledsoe	Rick Mirer
1994	Dan Wilkinson	Marshall Faulk
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Tony Boselli
1996	Keyshwn Johnson	Kevin Hardy
1997	Orlando Pace	Darrell Russell
1998	Peyton Manning	Ryan Leaf
1999	Tim Couch	Donovan McNabb
2000	Courtney Brown	LaVar Arrington
2001	Michael Vick	Leonard Davis
2002	David Carr	Julius Peppers
2003	Carson Palmer	Charles Rogers
2004	Eli Manning	Robert Gallery
2005	Alex Smith	Ronnie Brown
2006	Mario Williams	Reggie Bush
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Calvin Johnson
2008	Jake Long	Chris Long
2009	Matt Stafford	Jason Smith
2010	Sam Bradford	Ndamukong Suh
2011	Cam Newton	Von Miller