Top draft pick to Hall of Fame? Not in the '90s

Interesting note courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s web site, listing the 13 members of the Hall who were first overall draft picks. Did you think that number would be higher? Let’s take a closer look.

From 1960-1989, the first overall pick produced exactly three Hall of Famers per decade. That meant that the teams picking first overall in those 30 years had a 30 percent chance of landing a future Hall of Famer. Any GM would take those odds, right?

It’s the dreaded ‘90s that water down the numbers. As of now, there are zero top picks from the ‘90s in Canton. That will change as soon as Peyton Manning (1998) becomes eligible. And eventually, 1997 top pick Orlando Pace might give the ‘90s two No. 1 Hall of Famers. After that, however, none of the remaining eight top picks is even close to consideration.

There’s still plenty of history to be written for the top picks of the 2000s, but the first 10 years of this century don’t look much better than the ‘90s in terms of first overall picks. Two Super Bowl MVPs for Eli Manning (2004) put him in the mix. The jury is still way out there on Michael Vick, Mario Williams and Matt Stafford, but that’s about it.

Interestingly, while there have been 13 No. 1 picks to reach the Hall, a total of 12 Hall of Famers were No. 2 overall picks. The most recent was Marshall Faulk (1994) and there are two more that have a decent shot (Julius Peppers, 2002, and Calvin Johnson, 2007).

Look, picking at the top of the draft by no means guarantees you a Hall of Fame player. The problem is not missing out on a superstar; it’s passing on a superstar in favor of a bust. And when you look at this list of the top two picks since 1990, you find more busts than winners. Forget about Hall of Fame… Pro Bowl would be nice.

Year	No. 1 Pick	No. 2 Pick
1990	Jeff George	Blair Thomas
1991	Russell Maryland	Eric Turner
1992	Steve Emtman	Quentin Coryatt
1993	Drew Bledsoe	Rick Mirer
1994	Dan Wilkinson	Marshall Faulk
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Tony Boselli
1996	Keyshwn Johnson	Kevin Hardy
1997	Orlando Pace	Darrell Russell
1998	Peyton Manning	Ryan Leaf
1999	Tim Couch	Donovan McNabb
2000	Courtney Brown	LaVar Arrington
2001	Michael Vick	Leonard Davis
2002	David Carr	Julius Peppers
2003	Carson Palmer	Charles Rogers
2004	Eli Manning	Robert Gallery
2005	Alex Smith	Ronnie Brown
2006	Mario Williams	Reggie Bush
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Calvin Johnson
2008	Jake Long	Chris Long
2009	Matt Stafford	Jason Smith
2010	Sam Bradford	Ndamukong Suh
2011	Cam Newton	Von Miller

Super Mario reigns supreme over wacky 2006 draft

So the Texans have made it clear this offseason that they are intent on re-signing pass-rush specialist Mario Williams. Of course, whether or not he stays, it’s safe to say the Texans can officially be crowned the winners of the great draft debate of 2006.

You remember, that’s when so many people thought they were crazy for making Williams the first pick in the draft instead of taking Reggie Bush or hometown hero Vince Young. Sure, Bush did get a Super Bowl ring before his days in New Orleans came to an end, but it’s hard to imagine the Saints wouldn’t have won that title without the former Heisman Trophy winner. Bush did have his best season as a pro with the Dolphins in 2011, but let’s see him do that again before we decide he was ever worthy of the second overall pick, let a lone the first.

As for Young, well, there’s no question he wasn’t worthy. After a nice enough start to his career, he will now go down in NFL history best known for having dubbed the 2011 Eagles the “Dream Team.” And we all know how that turned out.

But when you take a closer look at the 2006 draft, it’s a perfect reminder that this whole process is little more than a crapshoot.

Foundation for the future? After five NFL seasons, barely half of the first-round picks from 2006 were still with the teams that drafted them. Some were good picks who simply left via free agency or trade – like Johnathan Joseph and Jay Cutler. Others were just busts – Laurence Maroney, Bobby Carpenter and some guy named Matt Leinart.

But even more to the point is a quick look at some other players drafted that year. While the Saints got Bush with the second overall pick, they also got WR Marques Colston… with the fourth-to-last pick. That would be pick number 252. Earlier in that seventh round, New Orleans drafted Zach Strief, who would become a starting offensive lineman. So they got two guys in the seventh round who turned out to be more valuable than the second overall pick.

The Titans, after settling for Young with that third overall pick, got feisty CB Cortland Finnegan in the seventh round.

Denver got Brandon Marshall in the fourth round. While he’s been in Miami with Bush, Denver still has Elvis Dumervil, who they got later that round.

While the Jaguars did something I consider the worst draft strategy ever – taking a tight end (in this case, Marcedes Lewis) in the first round, they did get Maurice Jones-Drew in the second.

There is no rhyme or reason here, folks. Doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t do their homework. This is not about teams making bad decisions (except for those dumb enough to take a tight end in the first). It’s about those of us in the media who think we can pass judgment the minute a pick is announced.

Sure, it’s fun. And the fans practically demand it. But guess what? We’re hardly ever right. The 2006 draft proved that from the first pick to the (fourth from) the last.