When it comes to sports, fate can be a funny thing. In this
day and age of analytics, where numbers tell the story and there is no shortage
of information at one’s disposal to predict the outcome of a sporting event, is
there any room left to fate?
Hell yes.
It’s really all a matter of fate, since fate can be
interpreted in any direction. Super Bowl LII is the ultimate example.
After all, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles
are fairly evenly matched. They had identical 13-3 records during the regular
season. They finished tied for second in the NFL in scoring offense (28.6
points per game). The Eagles were fourth in scoring defense (18.4 ppg) while
the Patriots were a tick behind in fifth (18.5).
Statistically, the biggest difference is in defensive yards
allowed. The Eagles ranked fourth overall, allowing 306.5 yards per game, while
the Patriots ranked 29th (366.0). Philadelphia’s top-ranked run
defense allowed just 79.2 yards per game, while New England came in at 20
(114.8).
We’ll concede that the mere presence of Tom Brady and Bill
Belichick at least balances out the Eagles’ edge on defense. Okay, maybe they
more than balance the spreadsheet.
So let’s bring fate into the mix. Not only are the Eagles
long overdue to win it all -- they haven’t been crowned NFL champions since
1960 – but the Patriots have captured the Lombardi Trophy five times in the
last 16 years. That’s downright obscene.
But here’s the thing: It’s not just that the New England
Patriots are due to lose. It’s that they have been creeping ever so close to
getting that comeuppance. Give Brady and Belichick all the credit in the world,
but there’s no denying this basic truth: Their opponents did plenty to help
them win their last two Super Bowls.
The Seahawks gave them Super Bowl XLIX with a terrible call
at the goal line, allowing Malcolm Butler to make a game-saving interception
instead of letting Marshawn Lynch run for a game-winning score with 20 seconds
left.
Last year, the Patriots amazingly came back from a 28-3
deficit to upend the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. Sure, the comeback was
magnificent. But it’s wrong not to pin that loss on Atlanta’s inability to kill
the clock.
The Patriots are truly one of the best teams in NFL history,
a dynasty of the 21st Century. It would be totally unfair to call
them lucky… but isn’t it fair to say that they’ve had some good fortune in
those last two Super Bowl wins?
Even this season, fortune smiled on them. Shouldn’t they
have lost that Week 15 game in Pittsburgh? First, the Steelers had a
game-winning Jesse James TD catch overturned. Then safety Duron Harmon picked
off a rushed Ben Roethlisberger pass at the goal line to seal the win. Without
that victory, Pittsburgh would have been the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the
playoffs might have been different.
That’s as far as I’ll take it. The Jaguars didn’t choke in
the AFC title game. The Patriots more than earned their fourth-quarter comeback
win over Jacksonville.
Still, it was yet another case of New England tempting fate.
How many lives does this cat have?
Simply put: The Eagles are overdue to win a championship,
and the Patriots are due to come up short.
Eagles 23, Patriots 20
