Mets fans have agonized over the lack of run support that Jacob deGrom has received during his stellar 2018 season. DeGrom currently leads the majors with a 1.77 earned run average, yet his record sits at a mediocre 9-9. As the season winds down to a merciful end, a study of starting pitchers over the last 70 years that have cracked the 2.00 ERA barrier shows how truly historic – and tragic – deGrom’s season has been.
DeGrom’s final start of the season is Wednesday night, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Cy Young Award? That’s been a hot-button topic that will not be resolved with one more start.
What is at stake is this: A loss would make deGrom the first starting pitcher in the modern era to finish with an ERA under 2.00 and a win-loss record under .500. A no-decision would make him the first in the group with a non-winning record and also the first with fewer than 10 wins. And considering he’s had 13 no-decisions already this season – 42 percent of his starts – the odds say he’ll finish 2018 with a .500 record.
Again, these numbers in no way reflect badly on deGrom. It’s all about his historic lack of run support.
A few more nuggets that put this feat in historical perspective:
• In the last 70 years, a total of 27 starting pitchers have posted an ERA under 2.00. Sandy Koufax did it three times; Luis Tiant, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez and Clayton Kershaw have done it twice.
• Of the 34 times it’s been done in that span, 17 of those seasons ended with a Cy Young Award. The sub-2.00 ERA helped produce a 20-win season 18 times.
• In 1968, six different pitchers had an ERA under 2.00 – led by Bob Gibson and his incomprehensible 1.12 ERA. Think about this: Tommy John, who allowed 1.98 runs per nine innings pitching for the Chicago White Sox that season, finished sixth in ERA.
• Tommy John went 10-5 in 1968 – the lowest win total among the 27 pitchers who had a sub-2.00 ERA.
• The closest any of these pitchers has come to a losing record was Sam McDowell, who went 15-14 for the Cleveland Indians in 1968, despite a 1.81 ERA. Unlike the 2018 Mets, the 1968 Indians finished with a winning record. That said, their team batting average was a paltry .234 (the ’18 Mets currently sit at .236.
• In 25 of the 34 sub-2.00 ERA seasons, the pitcher won at least twice as many games as he lost.
• The average win-loss record for these 34 seasons: 20-8. So in terms of history, deGrom is right about on average in terms of losses. But he’s a long way from the average win total.
Of course, Mets fans know that’s not deGrom’s fault.
Here’s a breakdown of the sub-2.00 ERAs over the last 70 years:
| Year | Pitcher, Team | ERA | W-L |
| 1955 | Billy Pierce, White Sox | 1.97 | 15-10 |
| 1963 | Sandy Koufax, Dodgers | 1.88 | 25-5 |
| 1964 | Dean Chance, Angels | 1.65 | 20-9 |
| 1964 | Joe Horlen, White Sox | 1.88 | 13-9 |
| 1964 | Sandy Koufax, Dodgers | 1.74 | 19-5 |
| 1966 | Sandy Koufax, Dodgers | 1.73 | 27-9 |
| 1966 | Gary Peters, White Sox | 1.98 | 12-10 |
| 1968 | Bob Gibson, Cardinals | 1.12 | 22-9 |
| 1968 | Luis Tiant, Indians | 1.60 | 21-9 |
| 1968 | Sam McDowell, Indians | 1.81 | 15-14 |
| 1968 | Dave McNally, Orioles | 1.95 | 22-10 |
| 1968 | Denny McLain, Tigers | 1.96 | 31-6 |
| 1968 | Tommy John, White Sox | 1.98 | 10-5 |
| 1971 | Tom Seaver, Mets | 1.76 | 20-10 |
| 1971 | Vida Blue, Athletics | 1.82 | 24-8 |
| 1971 | Wilbur Wood, White Sox | 1.87 | 22-13 |
| 1972 | Luis Tiant, Red Sox | 1.61 | 15-6 |
| 1972 | Gaylord Perry, Indians | 1.92 | 24-16 |
| 1972 | Steve Carlton, Phillies | 1.97 | 27-10 |
| 1972 | Gary Nolan, Reds | 1.99 | 15-5 |
| 1978 | Ron Guidry, Yankees | 1.74 | 25-3 |
| 1985 | Doc Gooden, Mets | 1.53 | 24-4 |
| 1985 | John Tudor, Cardinals | 1.93 | 21-8 |
| 1990 | Roger Clemens, Red Sox | 1.93 | 21-6 |
| 1994 | Greg Maddux, Braves | 1.56 | 16-6 |
| 1995 | Greg Maddux, Braves | 1.63 | 19-2 |
| 1996 | Kevin Brown, Marlins | 1.89 | 17-11 |
| 1997 | Pedro Martinez, Expos | 1.90 | 17-8 |
| 2000 | Pedro Martinez, Red Sox | 1.74 | 18-6 |
| 2005 | Roger Clemens, Astros | 1.87 | 13-8 |
| 2013 | Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers | 1.83 | 16-9 |
| 2014 | Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers | 1.77 | 21-3 |
| 2015 | Zack Greinke, Dodgers | 1.66 | 19-3 |
| 2015 | Jake Arrieta, Cubs | 1.77 | 22-6 |
